Chinese trade is waiting for a revival in demand

The volume of Chinese exports in annual terms in March decreased by 6.8%, imports – by 10.2%, the General Administration of Customs of China reported (in December, Chinese exports fell by 9.9%, imports – by 7.5%). The consensus forecast of analysts provided for a more significant decline in exports (by 9.4%) with a smaller drop in imports (minus 5.5%). At the same time, China’s foreign trade balance surplus continued to grow: in January-February it amounted to $116.9 billion compared to $109.7 billion a year earlier.

In particular, China’s exports to the United States in January-February decreased by 21.8%, to the European Union – by 12.2%, to the UK – by 14.4% (this trend probably reflects a decrease in demand in these countries amid fears of a recession). ). On the contrary, deliveries of Chinese products to ASEAN countries grew by 9%, to Russia – by 19.8% (for example, exports of Chinese cars across all countries increased by 78.9% year-on-year).

Import statistics reflected a more even reduction in supplies: imports of goods from the United States decreased by 5% year-on-year, from the EU – by 5.5%, from ASEAN states – by 8.3%, while supplies from Russia increased by 31.3%. %. The reduction in imports selectively affected commodities: crude oil imports decreased yoy by 1.3% in volume and 5.3% in money terms, natural gas — by 9.4% and 9.2%, while coal imports increased by 70%. .8% and 39.4% respectively.

It should be noted that in general, over the past year, Chinese exports to the Russian Federation increased by 12.8%, imports from Russia to China – by 43.4% (largely due to energy supplies). China’s trade with the United States did not change much last year, with Chinese exports up 1.2% and imports down 1.1%.

Capital Economics still hopes that the “opening” of China and the lifting of coronavirus restrictions will eventually lead to an increase in imports, while export deliveries, on the contrary, may decline amid cooling external demand. The current deepening of the decline in imports compared to December, when the country’s authorities began to lift restrictions, is explained in the center by the effect of a higher base: month-on-month, seasonally adjusted, imports remained almost unchanged, and taking into account lower prices, their volumes slightly increased. The volume of exports in monthly dynamics also increased – for the first time since September.

Tatyana Edovina