The demographer spoke about the causes of excess mortality from the pandemic in Russia

World Mortality Dataset experts have published a new map of cumulative excess mortality in different countries as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Russia looks intimidating on it – the entire territory is painted maroon, which indicates significant losses. Worse than us, according to the source, the situation is only in Serbia and Bulgaria. However, the well-known Russian independent demographer Alexei Raksha believes that everything is not quite so terrible. The expert spoke about how the pandemic turned out for different countries, and what conclusions can be drawn based on the experience gained, in an exclusive interview with MK.

The World Mortality Dataset map shows only those countries that provide information on the number of deaths for the global database. The source estimates excess mortality per million population: the darker the color, the higher it is. According to the resulting picture of the world, the smallest excess mortality among these countries is in Japan (more precisely, it is even negative there), and one of the highest is in Russia. “This seems to be due to the fact that strict quarantine measures have reduced deaths from other causes, for example, from car accidents and deaths from influenza. From what I know in Europe, the relative excess mortality is higher in comparison with Russia, in Bulgaria and Serbia, ”comments the well-known molecular biologist Olga Matveeva on the resulting picture.

Meanwhile, Aleksey Raksha is sure that the calculation method used when compiling the map cannot be called correct:

– It is necessary to take into account that an incorrect indicator was taken as a basis, in addition, the list of countries is far from complete. Therefore, in general, the picture of the world is greatly distorted – the map is more misleading than reflecting the real situation.

– What is wrong with the indicator, which is taken as the basis for calculations when compiling this map?

– The problem is that the creators of this map did not use a very good indicator, namely, the increase in the total mortality rate. And it very much depends on the age structure of the population, so when calculating the effect of covid in an older category of the population, it will be clearly overestimated, and in the young stratum it will be underestimated. Indeed, today it is already clear that covid takes the lives of mainly old people, and the proportion of old people in different countries can differ up to ten times.

– Is there a high proportion of old people in Russia?

– In Russia, the proportion of the elderly population is higher than the world average. It is, of course, below the European average, but much higher than the world average.

– Which indicator gives the most objective picture of how the world has been affected by the pandemic?

– To get the correct figures, you need to estimate the increase in mortality as a percentage of the expected number of deaths.

– And what is the situation by country based on this indicator?

– Russia is in the top ten countries out of 123 countries and territories for which data are available. Depending on the method of counting, it takes 9th or 10th place. Armenia is directly in front of Russia, but it lost a lot of people during the war, about 20 thousand people died there, and this greatly affected the excess mortality. But in the end, worse than in Russia, the situation is only in 8 countries: Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Mexico, North Macedonia, Albania, Colombia and Paraguay. In the first place anti-rating – Peru.

– What are the main reasons why these countries, including Russia, were unable to contain the onslaught of the pandemic?

– In our country, the main reason for the high mortality during the pandemic is a poorly organized information policy, the population’s distrust of everything that is offered. As well as the extremely low level of development of civil society, solidarity, the very atomization of society.

– Which countries, as a result, were able to reduce the mortality rate as much as possible during the pandemic?

– It is expected that these are primarily island states, which is no wonder: they do not have land borders, it is easier for them to control the movement of the population. These are Greenland, Seychelles, Antibes and Barbuda, New Zealand. In the latter, the death rate was even lower than expected – the reason is the isolation of the country, strict quarantine and strict observance of all sanitary standards. In New Zealand, following the results of two years of the pandemic, a negative increase in mortality was recorded. Luxembourg, a country in the center of Europe, at the crossroads of transport routes, has weathered the pandemic well. What is the secret is not clear. In Japan, strict enforcement of quarantine has played a big role. This densely populated country also has extremely low mortality rates during the pandemic. The situation is similar in Taiwan – contact tracing by cameras worked there, epidemiological investigations were carried out on each case of infection. Mongolia got off lightly, but this is a sparsely populated country, apparently this is the reason. Good performance in Denmark, Australia, Canada. I listed the countries where the increase in mortality in general did not exceed 10% of the usual. In Russia, it was plus 69%, and in Peru – plus 115%.

– What conclusions can be drawn for the future? What measures to contain the pandemic process have shown the greatest effectiveness?

– The most effective measures are quarantines, competent information policy and vaccination. Before the advent of the vaccine, quarantines and an information campaign worked best, then vaccination and an information campaign, plus a system of soft quarantines, calling for limiting contacts. And, of course, the adaptation of the healthcare system. All this must be taken into account for the future.