The deadline for the end of the coronavirus pandemic has been named: the consequences of the virus are significant
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The coronavirus pandemic can be completed in 2024 – such a forecast, citing infectious disease experts, was circulated by the media on January 22. At the same time, at the moment, Russia is not experiencing a decline, but, on the contrary, an increase in the incidence of covid – in a week, the daily number of detected cases increased by 40%. All identified cases are the Omicron strain, which debuted a year ago, and is characterized by increased contagiousness. Is it worth hoping for the end of covid in a year – MK found out.
The end of the pandemic in a year (that is, just in 2024) is a figure taken from the forecast of infectious disease doctor Yevgeny Timakov, which he gave in an interview with TASS. At the same time, in full, the expert’s quote is not so rosy. “Earlier than in a year or two, the pandemic will not end,” the doctor said.
According to Timakov, the virus needs 4-5 years for a full adaptation cycle. During this time, “persistent mutations are obtained,” the infectious disease specialist emphasized. — Three years of active process and two years of adaptation. We have gone through three years of an active process, now we are adapting, it will take just a year or two if new lines do not appear.”
Now new lines, according to the expert, may appear among people with weakened immune systems. In general, COVID-19, starting with the Omicron strain, has become a typical ARVI (acute respiratory viral infection), a significant part of Russians already have immunity to it.
Such a forecast is in line with the scientific consensus regarding the coronavirus and COVID-19, Professor Nikolai Malyshev, a leading employee of the Gamaleya Center, Doctor of Medical Sciences, explained to MK. “Many experts have long come to the conclusion that covid will soon become a common seasonal viral disease, and this is happening,” the expert noted. According to Malyshev, it is now clear that the incidence waves are getting smaller, and the “ferocity” of the disease is decreasing with growing contagiousness.
“We are gradually approaching the moment when covid will be a common seasonal disease, it will cease to be especially dangerous,” the infectious disease specialist emphasized. – Most likely, this will not happen immediately, there will be fluctuations. But soon we will see qualitative changes.
Recall that the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, and then in Europe, became the news of a global scale in the winter of 2019-2020. On January 30, 2020, the disease was declared dangerous to society due to severe symptoms and significant contagiousness, and on March 11 of the same year, WHO declared a coronavirus pandemic. The status of a pandemic allowed most countries in the world to introduce severe restrictions in 2020 – in particular, many international flights were canceled for several months, and the borders of most countries of the world were closed.
In 2020 and 2021, countries developed three main approaches to combating the coronavirus pandemic. The first strategy, typical of Western states, involved a sharp restriction of social contacts, which was initially considered necessary to stop the spread of covid – for the months that it took to build up medical capacities. The second, tested by China and held by the PRC until the end of 2022, provided for much more total lockdowns and full control over the movement of citizens. Finally, the third, which was followed by a number of states, including the UK (in the first half of 2020), Sweden and Belarus, relied on the development of natural population immunity.
By the beginning of 2023, the countries of all three strategies came to about the same point – there are more and more outbreaks of coronavirus (the Omicron strain and its derivatives), as a result of which the death rate and the number of severe cases do not exceed the level of losses from ordinary severe SARS, such as like the flu. So, in December this year in Russia, the danger of the circulating swine flu H1N1-09 was recognized as no less significant than covid. Nevertheless, the issue of lifting the pandemic regime by WHO will most likely be resolved at the political level.
“Declaring a pandemic is a quick decision, but stopping it de jure is much more difficult and longer,” Nikolai Malyshev explained to MK. “Obviously, some fairly long time will pass when we will already be living in the seasonal coronavirus regime, but the pandemic will not be lifted by the WHO yet.
Considering that specific coronavirus restrictions are being lifted and imposed regardless of the presence or absence of a pandemic regime, there is no need to worry about the international status of covid, the doctor concluded. It is much more important not to get sick with coronavirus now – because, although the symptoms of the disease itself are not so severe, the consequences are significant.
About 10% of the population, according to Nikolai Malyshev, received such complications – and this is already about 200 different symptoms and syndromes, including prolonged disturbances in the functioning of various internal organs. Thus, regardless of its official end, the coronavirus pandemic will remain in our history as a “great breeder” – since it is already known that this disease “prefers” people with chronic diseases.
Newspaper headline:
Coronavirus measured two years
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