The consequences of referendums in the LDNR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions are named

Referendums on joining Russia will be held in the DPR, LPR, Kherson region and part of the Zaporozhye region on September 23-27. Moreover, in Zaporozhye, the questions, as the head of the CAA Balitsky said, will sound like this: “On secession from Ukraine, the creation of a state and its entry into Russia.” We figured out what to expect from the upcoming referendums.

The process began with the fact that yesterday the Public Chambers of the DPR and LPR appealed to the heads of the republics Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik with the initiative to immediately hold a referendum on joining Russia. In turn, Pushilin expressed his readiness not only to hold a referendum, but also to join efforts to prepare them.

At the request of the Public Council of the Kherson region, such a referendum was also announced by the head of the region’s CAA, Volodymyr Saldo. After applying with a similar initiative of the public movement “We are together with Russia” and the inhabitants of the region, a decree was issued by the head of the Zaporozhye region, Yevgeny Balitsky. In the people’s republics, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, referendums are scheduled for September 23-27 and will be held in a mixed (face-to-face) format.

These referendums are by no means the first expression of popular will that determines the fate of the region. On May 11, 2014, referendums were held in the territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, the results of which made it possible to declare independence from Kyiv. The surge of aggressive Ukrainian nationalism, provoked by the Euromaidan, aroused the desire of the population of Donbass to secede from Ukraine. Then it took only 5 weeks to prepare for voting in the Donetsk region, and even less – 3 in the Luhansk region.

At the polling stations, people worked practically for free, and volunteer detachments carried out security. With all the organizers’ desire to show the openness of the voting process, foreign observers consisted only of representatives of the press. Neither the OSCE, nor the Council of Europe, nor other international organizations and countries officially sent their observers.

According to the Central Election Commission of the DPR, the act of state independence of the republic was supported by 89% of those who voted with a turnout of 75%. With a similar turnout in the LPR, according to the organizers, 96.2% were in favor of self-determination.

Based on at least the history of the referendums in 2014, it cannot be ruled out that Kyiv will take any measures to try to disrupt the voting process this time as well.

For example, 8 years ago, during the referendum on the independence of the DPR in Krasnoarmeysk, Ukrainian security forces not only staged the seizure of one of the polling stations, but also opened fire on civilians protesting against violent arbitrariness, one of whom died from a bullet wound. Therefore, even now the situation in the regions on voting days will be at least tense.

At the expense of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, the scale of the referendum on joining Russia could surpass the independence vote of 2014.

According to the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the LPR to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik, consultations are underway and working issues are being discussed on the format of the referendum. “There are informal signals from Russia about how the results of the referendum will be perceived. We have 7 civilians killed tonight, and yesterday in Donetsk – 16. Experts are now working to ensure that in the conditions of a very serious danger from the Ukrainian state, use all available methods to hold a referendum. There are many of them, and there is no single standard for holding a referendum. We need to create a format that will ensure a transparent, understandable, accessible and free expression of the will of citizens, which will be primarily perceived by Russia and observers from other countries,” Miroshnik told MK.

The Ambassador of the LPR noted that the experience of 2014 will be taken into account when preparing for the referendum. “This is our experience, we will build on it. We don’t need to be taught this. We know how the referendum was held, we know its results.

In addition, experts were involved who themselves participated in the preparation of referendums in other states and who know what new methods can be applied here. We are absolutely not against the use of established, legitimate and recognized practices of other countries.”

From the results of an INSOMAR poll conducted on September 6, it turned out that 71% of citizens are going to vote for joining Russia in a referendum in the Zaporozhye region, and 63% in the Kherson region. On the territory of the Zaporozhye region, 75% of respondents are ready to take part in the voting, in the Kherson region – 65%. INSOMAR also recorded that 80% of respondents are going to vote in the DPR, and 83% in the LPR. The RIPSI poll recorded that 94% of the citizens of the DPR would vote for joining the Russian Federation, in the LPR – 93%.

In an interview with MK, Denis Denisov, director of the Institute for Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology, stressed that the decision to call a referendum would be an incentive for mobilization and unity around the idea of ​​the process of joining Russia. “Then the contours of the image of the future and its understanding will appear. This will mean a completely different quality of life and level of security, and this problem is now a key one for the residents of the republics.”

In the case of referendums in Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, a different logic will work. “This will mean the completion of the discussion format on the issue of the positions of the negotiations on the settlement of the conflict. If they vote and all four regions are accepted into Russia, then the base will be such a minimum, from which a conversation with official Kyiv will begin, ”the expert noted. “They will become the territory of Russia, and Russia is not negotiating the status and ownership of its territories.”

Also, in the case of a positive decision by the inhabitants of the region, according to Denisov, the line of contact will stabilize. “There is a possibility that in the strategic perspective, a low-intensity conflict scenario will be repeated, where both sides will wait for a successful geopolitical conjuncture for potentially possible military actions or configurations with a political resolution of the conflict.”

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