The competition between the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party for 2nd place has intensified

Voter sympathy for the LDPR continues to grow against the backdrop of a decline in positive attitudes towards the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Researchers from the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) came to this result; 1,500 people from 53 regions took part in the survey. 26% of Russians surveyed have a positive view of the LDPR, while only 18% have a positive view of the communists.

The current electoral rating of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, according to FOM, is 8%, the Liberal Democratic Party – 12%. 41% of voters are ready to vote for “United Russia” in the Duma elections, if they took place next weekend, for “A Just Russia – For Truth” – 4%, for “New People” – 3%.

Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Sergei Obukhov does not agree with the conclusions of the FOM. According to him, the results obtained are not confirmed by similar studies of other sociological services. For example, data from the public service VTsIOM differs somewhat: according to their survey dated September 24, the Communists remain second (10.6% of respondents would vote for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and 9% for the Liberal Democratic Party).

The LDPR is not giving up its ambitions to be “party No. 2,” Yaroslav Nilov, deputy head of the faction and member of the party’s Supreme Council, told Vedomosti. The past autumn elections of 2023 showed that “the trend continues”; the party managed to get 2nd place in many legislative assemblies. In seven regions out of 20, the LDPR lists took 2nd place in terms of the number of votes, including the Lugansk Republic and the Zaporozhye region.

“And where we are not second, but third, we are slightly behind the Communist Party of the Russian Federation,” Nilov explained. When asked whether the new head of the party, Leonid Slutsky, could add additional electoral points, the deputy head of the LDPR faction said that “despite the fact that Vladimir Zhirinovsky is not physically with us, his work lives on.”

The success of the LDPR is largely due to the personality of the deceased party leader, says Alexei Makarkin, first vice-president of the Center for Political Technologies. “Voters support not so much the party now, but the memory of Zhirinovsky <...> and the new leadership of the LDPR is perceived as his successors,” he explained to Vedomosti. The LDPR does not need to engage in self-censorship, like the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, all “the messages they promote are familiar, this does not clash them with the authorities,” Makarkin added.

The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has a more difficult position due to the diversity of the electorate: they were supported by both those who are against the current government and those who are for it. Some of them are now distanced from politics, another part is looking closely at Yabloko, and the third has joined the party in power, he believes.

In the upcoming elections of 2024, such ratings may remain, but the voting results will be different: the fact is that LDPR supporters will most likely support the candidate from the government. The maximum that the LDPR will count on is to get “results comparable to the Communist Party of the Russian Federation,” Makarkin concluded.

Political scientist Alexander Nemtsev agrees with his colleague: “The success of the LDPR is associated with the memory of Zhirinovsky, with the skillful use of his brand and his legacy.” In particular, the growth of popularity is influenced by the fact that videos in which the former head of the party “predicts” the situation in Ukraine are still actively disseminated on social networks.

The only thing that has changed after the death of the head of the LDPR is the approaches to organizing campaigning; they have become more varied, Nemtsev believes: “By and large, this is the use of an old brand on a new basis.” At the same time, the party is unlikely to be able to maintain high ratings until the next elections.

“The LDPR needs to look for its subjectivity, this charge will not last long, we need bright initiatives and new faces, [которые] are now blurry.” If the party continues to limit itself to the glory of Zhirinovsky, there is a chance that the LDPR will “leave the political Olympus” altogether, gaining only a certain number of votes by inertia.

In the 2023 elections, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation managed to gain the support of 920,541 voters. In total, the party lost 623,642 votes in 16 regions compared to the 2018 elections.

The LDPR won a total of 676,184 votes in the 2023 elections. The party has lost 30% of the vote in five years.