The Central Bank saw risks for the economy in raising the salaries of Russians

Analysts urged not to rush to increase wages in the country

An unexpected conclusion was reached by analysts from the Research and Forecasting Department of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, who warn in their bulletin “What the Trends Say About” that rising wages against the backdrop of a shortage of personnel could lead to an acceleration of inflation, which is bad for the economy. At the same time, President Putin, just a couple of days ago, in the list of instructions following the results of the meeting on strategic development and national projects, identified six key tasks for 2023, one of which is the growth of real wages in the country.

For the sake of completeness, it should be borne in mind that all statements are made in conditions when inflation in January 2023 in Russia was in double digits and amounted to about 11.5%. Accordingly, it is possible to talk about the growth of real monthly wages only if they are planned to be raised by an amount exceeding this indicator. As reported on the website of the Cabinet of Ministers, in January, wages of public sector employees were indexed. It is already known that in the next three years the Ministry of Finance will allocate a little more than a trillion rubles for these purposes. But in 2023, the level of wages of state employees will grow by more than 8%, which is lower than the inflation rate recorded by Rosstat by the end of January.

In the sphere of private business, salvation is also not worth waiting for. “The shortage of personnel, caused both by demographic reasons and the lack of foreign labor, hits the blue-collar segment most of all: professions with a low entry threshold, for linear vacancies,” says Sergey Sukhostavets, Operations Director of the Rocket Work platform. – As a result, we have the most noticeable positive dynamics of fees over the past 1-2 years, not so much among IT specialists, who are talked about so much even at the highest level, but among couriers, builders, drivers, housing and communal services employees. Now these segments have the lowest competition for vacancies.”

But how much will such wages rise? According to a study by the HeadHunter portal, about 60% of Russian employers plan to index wages this winter. The average increase will be 5 thousand rubles. Further, if we take as a guide the average median salary in the country in 2022 – 40 thousand rubles, then the increase in half of the cases will be a little more than 10%. This will not even be able to cover the official inflation, despite the fact that most consumers feel a stronger price increase compared to the figures published by Rosstat. It is clear that specialists from the fields of IT, finance, information security can count on a large increase in salary this year, but their share among all employees is very small and they are not able to spin inflation with their consumption. For state employees, who, according to experts from the Financial University, there are about 20 million people in Russia, and blue-collar workers, the increase does not even cover inflation.

And in general, fears about an “excessive” increase in salaries in our realities look strange. It is not surprising that “conspiracy theories” are beginning to be discussed in social networks, that, supposedly, the conclusions of Bank of Russia analysts are aimed at ensuring that businesses do not raise wages for employees – otherwise inflation will increase, and since the regulator is fighting it, the Central Bank will take and raise the key rate. Because of this, interest on loans will increase, which means that it will become more difficult for businesses to live, and thus the desire to raise salaries for people working in this business will immediately disappear. And it turns out that the regulator is, as it were, not interested in the growth of the well-being of Russians.

However, experts urge to think critically. “It is worth considering that the employee and the state (due to taxes) benefit from the growth of salaries,” says Artem Tuzov, director of the corporate finance department at IVA Partners Investment Company. – And the employer bears material costs from this process, which then shifts to consumers in the form of rising prices for products. The risk here is realized if the employer is forced to raise the salaries of employees and cannot pass the costs on to consumers.”