The Central Bank expects inflation to rise: experts told what will rise in price and how to save

For which goods and services and by how much will prices rise by the end of the year

The Bank of Russia forecasts inflation at the level of 4.5-6.5% this year. This is stated in the published report of the regulator “Monetary Policy Review”. Considering that, according to the data of the Ministry of Economic Development, by May 15, inflation in Russia amounted to about 2.3%, the Central Bank expects the figure to almost double by the end of the year. About what goods and services will rise in price in the near future, and how citizens can save money in such conditions, “MK” was told by experts.

Anatoly Vakulenko, financial expert:

“The Central Bank forecasts inflation mainly based on macroeconomic indicators, and not on a specific study of the situation for each type of goods from the basket for which inflation is calculated. Studying the situation with the production, consumption, import and export of specific types of goods is not in his competence, and he does not have the appropriate structures for this. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation evaluates such factors as the level of key rates in the world and world inflation, the volume of money supply, predicts the balance of foreign trade and the budget and the amounts that the government will have to borrow – and already on their basis calculates what inflation will be in the country. Moreover, this has little in common with the inflation felt by the population. From January 1, 2023, the list of goods included in the basket for calculating inflation includes 566 goods and services for calculating monthly inflation and 109 goods and services for weekly inflation.

Let’s say, if the prices of cars, trips to Turkey, smartphones, furniture, building materials, which are included in the calculation of the general inflation rate, rise significantly, and at the expense of the premium segment, but at the same time food prices rise slightly, the inflation rate will increase, and a significant part of the population will not notice it. Since if he acquires such goods and services, then not every year. But the increase in the price of products will be noticeable to everyone, even if at the same time, due to other categories of goods, the overall value of inflation will be small.

Of the categories that continue to rise in price, it is worth highlighting travel (in particular, due to the lengthening of air routes, a decrease in the number of flights and the weakening of the ruble), cars for which a significant shortage remains on the market. In the second half of the year, if due to the current overstocking of the market, agricultural producers reduce their sowing volumes, and even more so if the summer turns out to be unsuccessful for them due to the current high temperatures and lack of precipitation, food prices may accelerate. But all this has little to do with the data that the Central Bank operates with.

Accordingly, for your own benefit, it is better to plan your vacation and buy vouchers in advance – they are already cheaper with such purchases, and in the event of a significant increase in prices over the period from the date of purchase of vouchers, you can save even significant amounts. Some goods that you need should be bought in online stores, online auctions or in commission trading and buying. Especially the latter applies to furs and gadgets. In general, the main rule is to study the market and look for the best price.”

Olga Lebedinskaya, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, REU. G. V. Plekhanov:

“Growing in price will be those goods that are tied to the exchange rate. In fact, these are the majority of goods imported under import substitution schemes, the cost of foreign holidays, air tickets, cars. With a high probability, the growth in real estate prices will still be able to regain the lost momentum.

Rising prices can also be provoked by the rising cost of gasoline, the weakening of the national currency, and the correction of the cost of utilities. Inflation in the food market will most likely not exceed the thresholds set by the Central Bank.

To a certain extent, saving the family budget can reduce the negative impact of inflation on citizens. For example, some Russians actively take advantage of the loyalty programs of large chains, cashback programs for purchasing goods from partners, and personalized retail offers. Another way to save (ineffective, but interesting) is to collect stickers at the nearest grocery store and exchange them for gifts, purchase a premium subscription in order to receive a discount (virtual cinema, taxi). Changing the time of going to the store (for example, to 11) can save up to 19%, the same rule applies to delivery. You can use the tips of large discount aggregators. The state also has support programs: payment of a fine at a discount, donation, personal income tax deductions.”