The Central Bank expects inflation to peak in the second quarter of 2024 – Kommersant

First Deputy Director of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Department Andrei Gangan said that the peak of annual inflation is expected in the second quarter of 2024. He added that the regulator expects loan portfolio growth in the coming years to be 6–11%.

“As for possible maximum annual inflation, we assume that they could happen in the second quarter of this year,” Mr. Gangan told reporters (quoted by TASS).

He added that the key rate of 16% makes it possible to effectively contain inflation and quickly reduce inflationary pressure. In the next three years, the key rate will be approximately 10%, said Andrei Gangan.

The loan portfolio at the end of the year, as a representative of the Central Bank suggested, will grow, but will become “more moderate and balanced than last year.” Its growth will be 6–11% compared to 2023. It “will grow at the same pace over the medium term.”

In October 2023, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, assumed that in 2024 inflation would peak in the spring. Last year, she said, inflation dynamics peaked in the third quarter. On March 13, Rosstat for the first time since May 2023 recorded zero weekly inflation.

Read more about the Russian economy in the Kommersant publication. “Income makes it difficult to slow down”.

Petr Buzlaev