The candidate who won 5.17% called for voting for Erdogan in the second round

Nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who dropped out of the presidential race in Turkey, announced his support for the incumbent President Erdogan (he scored 49.4%) in the second round, which will be held on May 28. He announced his decision on the air of local TV channels.

Erdogan’s rival is the leader of the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the opposition National Alliance, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who received 44.8% in the first round.

In his speech, Ogan spoke about how his campaign had contributed to shaping the nationalist agenda in Turkey and reiterated the principles he had put forward as conditions for supporting candidates on 17 May. They assume the inviolability of the articles of the constitution, which speak of the secular and Turkish nature of the state. Ogan considers the participation of pro-Kurdish parties in the government unacceptable. He also demanded to continue the continuous fight against terrorists and organizations banned in Turkey, including the structures of the preacher Fethullah Gülen, who is accused of organizing a coup attempt in 2016. Finally, Ogan advocates the deportation of refugees.

“The National Alliance failed to defeat the People’s Alliance [Эрдогана] and failed to offer us a perspective that would give us confidence in the future. But most importantly, he was unable to secure a parliamentary majority. Our decision was made on the basis of benefit for the Turkish nation, not for ourselves,” Ogan said. According to the results of the May 14 parliamentary elections, the opposition bloc managed to gain only 35% of the vote, while the ruling alliance – 49.5%. This means that if Kılıçdaroğlu wins the presidential election, he will face an opposition parliament and will not be able to effectively govern the country.

Ogan, being a non-partisan, was nominated from the Father’s bloc of extreme nationalists, which included the Victory Party (Zafer Partisi) and the Justice Party (Adalet Partisi). In the parliamentary elections, they did not overcome the 7% barrier, receiving only 2.4% of the vote. On the eve of Ogan’s talks with Erdogan, the leader of the Victory Party, Umit Ozdag, announced on May 22 the dissolution of the Father bloc. In addition, Ozdag told Turkish Halk TV journalists that he would make a statement on May 23 about which candidate his party would support. And immediately after Ogan’s speech, the politician wrote on his Twitter page that the statement of the former ally “is only his own political preference.”

Earlier, Kılıçdaroğlu agreed to fulfill part of Ogan’s demands. Moreover, at a press conference on May 19 in front of Turkish journalists, he promised to “send about 10 million refugees out of the country” if he became president. Erdogan himself announced even before the elections in March that he would not expel displaced persons.

The choice of Ogan will not have a decisive impact on the outcome of the second round of the presidential election, said Iqbal Durre, associate professor of the theory of regional studies at the Moscow State Linguistic University. “Firstly, the politician does not completely control the votes of the nationalists. The votes cast for him rather reflect the protest moods among a part of the nationalist-minded electorate – they can simultaneously be dissatisfied with both Erdogan’s policy and Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, the expert noted. – Secondly, the majority of nationalists decided in the first round. The incumbent was generally voted by ultra-nationalists, and the opposition by moderate nationalists.”

The Ogan factor could be a toxic asset for Kılıçdaroğlu, Durre continues: “In order to attract nationalist votes, Kılıçdaroğlu actively uses nationalist rhetoric after the first round. He had not acted like this before. But by doing this, the oppositionist scares off the Kurdish electorate and may jeopardize the prospect of his election, since there are several times more Kurds in the country than Turkish ultranationalists.” The outcome of the elections, according to Durre, will be decided by the votes of undecided voters. “According to the results of the first round, about 8-10% of the electorate did not take part in the elections. About 1.5 million more ballots were spoiled. Most of them, I believe, do not support the current government. Theoretically, Kılıçdaroğlu can mobilize this reserve,” the expert concluded.