The budgetary windfall generated by wind and solar power continues to grow

It is a tax on “superprofits” which does not say its name. While the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, repeats on all the antennas its opposition to a tax on windfall profits Bercy is discreetly reaping record revenues at the same time thanks to a mechanism that looks a lot like it.

According to our information, the government thus expects to reap more than 8 billion euros this year, and at least as much next year, by puncturing the margins that renewable energy producers can obtain thanks to soaring prices. electricity. Crazy sums which far exceed all forecasts, and which prove to be very useful when new aid is announced to deal with inflation.

Soaring electricity prices

To understand the situation, we must look at the system put in place since the 2000s to develop renewable energies. Electricity purchase contracts were then signed with producers in the wind and solar sectors, which guaranteed them a fixed remuneration price (higher than the market price) for 15 to 20 years to encourage them to invest. For years, the State has thus paid more than 40 billion euros in subsidies.

But these same contracts also provided that producers would owe a payment to the State on the day when market prices exceeded this guaranteed price. And since this year, we are there – and not just a little! While the guaranteed prices fluctuate between 81 and 137 euros per MWh (depending on the date of the contracts), we are currently more around 630 euros per MWh (after rising to more than 1,000 euros a few days ago) for contracts at term for 2023. And to further maximize its revenue, Bercy has included in the amending finance bill for 2022 voted this summer a provision which removes the cap granted to certain producers for payments to the State.

The cost of the tariff shield

The consequences are massive for the state budget. While he had registered a charge of around 5 billion a year ago to subsidize renewable energy producers in 2022, the executive should ultimately reap revenues of 8 billion. A difference of 13 billion, much higher than CRE expected (the Energy Regulatory Commission, the sector regulator) this summer. In 2023, revenues could equal or even exceed this record amount, according to the latest estimates from Bercy.

Does this make the state a “superprofiteer”, as the boss of Medef recently said in a joke Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux, the president of Medef? Within the executive, it is recalled that these revenues are far from compensating for all the aid put in place to deal with soaring energy prices. The tariff shield should thus cost 24 billion this year (10.5 billion for the increase in electricity limited to +4%, 6 billion for the gas price freeze and 7.5 billion for the fuel discount). “All these figures – for both revenue and expenditure – may be subject to large variations with the evolution of energy prices, and this will be particularly the case for 2023”, we remind Bercy.

This kitty generated by renewable energies in any case gives a good idea of ​​the “European contribution mechanism” promoted Monday by Emmanuel Macron and this Wednesday by Brussels which exclusively targets energy operators who make “undue profits”. It would therefore only be a question of reproducing and extending the French “model” to other sources of electricity production (coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, etc.). This is why Bruno Le Maire – who nevertheless wants to avoid any taxation of the superprofits of TotalEnergies or CMA-CGM for example – was able to explain that he found himself perfectly in the proposal of the Head of State. “These must [producteurs d’énergie] donate to the community what they can touch thanks to the exceptional circumstances ”, had justified Tuesday the Minister of the Economy.