the budget risks losing 335 billion in three years – Kommersant
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The Accounts Chamber (CA) announced the risks of shortfalls in projected revenues to the federal budget. According to her report, the amount of the shortfall could reach 119.3 billion rubles. in 2024, 129 billion rubles. — in 2025, 151.7 billion rubles. – in 2026, that is, a total of 400 billion rubles, they report “News”.
The auditors also made an assessment taking into account additional income. These revenues not taken into account in the forecast will amount to 65 billion rubles. for three years (35.2 billion rubles, 20.9 billion rubles and 8.9 billion rubles, respectively). If we take these funds into account, then in 2024 the budget may receive a shortfall of 84.1 billion rubles (0.05% of GDP), and in 2025 – 108.2 billion rubles. (0.06% of GDP), in 2026 – 142.7 billion rubles. (0.07% of GDP). Over three years, the amount of the shortfall will amount to 335 billion rubles.
The joint venture expects shortfalls:
- for VAT on goods and services sold within the Russian Federation (109.2 billion rubles in 2024, 117.5 billion rubles in 2025, 126 billion rubles in 2026, that is, about 352 billion rubles over a three-year period) ;
- from excise taxes on tobacco products produced in the Russian Federation (35.7 billion rubles over three years, while the draft budget for this item expects revenues of about 770 billion rubles annually).
According to the joint venture, the most additional revenue will come from import VAT: 25.1 billion rubles. in 2024 and 13.4 billion rubles. in 2025 (total 38.5 billion rubles). This is explained by the rise in prices of imports and changes in their structure in the context of a rising dollar. In addition, in 2024–2026, auditors expect that additional revenues will be received from the excise tax on liquid steel in the amount of 2.4 billion rubles. annually.
According to Kommersant, the joint venture, in its conclusion on the draft budget for the next three-year period currently being considered by the State Duma, noted a significant increase in income and expenses in 2024. The auditors also pointed out the incomparability of the macro forecasts of the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank and identified the risks of not achieving the new oil cut-off price of $60 per barrel.
Details – in the material “Kommersant” “The Accounts Chamber took a closer look at the budget”.
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