The budget deficit decreased to 2.6 trillion rubles by the end of the first half of the year

The federal budget deficit decreased in June from 3.411 trillion rubles. up to 2.595 trillion. rub., follows from the preliminary data of the Ministry of Finance. For the first half of the year, treasury revenues amounted to 12.381 trillion rubles, demonstrating a decline of 12% compared to the same period last year. Expenses increased by 19% to RUB 14.976 trillion.

Oil and gas revenues (OGD) decreased by 47% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year to RUB 3.382 trillion. As reasons for the decline, the high comparison base of last year, the decline in Urals oil prices, as well as the decline in prices and the reduction in natural gas exports were indicated. At the same time, there is an exit of the monthly dynamics of OGD to the trajectory corresponding to the base level of 8 trillion. rub. in year.

Clarification of the mechanism for determining the tax base of “oil” taxes and the reduction of the corresponding price discounts will contribute to the restoration of tax revenues in the second half of the year, the Ministry of Finance indicates. An additional stabilizing factor is the use of NWF funds, which compensate for the shortfall in oil and gas revenues.

Non-oil and gas revenues, on the contrary, grew by 17.8% and amounted to almost 9 trillion rubles. The dynamics of the receipt of the main non-oil and gas revenues – turnover taxes, income tax – “has entered a steadily positive area”, including relative to the level of 2021, the Ministry of Finance specified.

The formation of the volume of expenditures in 2023 will be influenced by the maximum amount of budget obligations and the amount of additional AIT, based on the “budget rule”. This will ensure the stability of the primary structural deficit (the difference between the sum of non-oil and gas and basic oil and gas revenues and the total volume of budget expenditures), the Ministry of Finance emphasizes.

In June, federal budget revenues grew by 29.8% yoy. Over the month, the balance of the federal budget reached a surplus of 800 billion rubles. By comparison, a $400 billion deficit was recorded in May.

According to the current budget law, revenues for 2023 are planned in the amount of 26.1 trillion rubles, expenses – 29 trillion, thus, the deficit is expected at the level of 2.9 trillion, or 2% of GDP. Borrowings in the domestic market should become the main sources of its coverage. At the same time, this year, to ensure a balanced budget, it is possible to use the funds of the National Wealth Fund in the amount of 2.9 trillion rubles.

According to preliminary data, the execution of federal budget expenditures for the implementation of national projects as of July 1, 2023 amounted to 1.347 trillion rubles, or 45.1% of the planned budget allocations. The highest level of execution was recorded for national projects: “Science and Universities” (71.9%), “Culture” (68.4%), “Ecology” (55.9%), “Labor Productivity” (51.2%), A comprehensive plan for the modernization and expansion of the main infrastructure (transport part) (50.6%).

“Tourism and hospitality industry” (28%), “Healthcare” (34.6%), “Small and medium-sized businesses and support of individual entrepreneurial initiative” (35.7%), “International cooperation and export” (36%) are the slowest performers. .1%), Housing and Urban Environment (37.5%), Digital Economy of the Russian Federation (38.4%), Safe High-Quality Roads (40.5%), Education (41.5 %), “Demography” (49%).

The reduction of the deficit in June was expected, says Alexandra Osmolovskaya-Suslina, head of the “Financial Policy” direction of the Economic Expert Group. The market predicted a slowdown in spending, since at the beginning of the year it was immediately announced the specifics of their financing. A significant part was advanced at a “leading pace” in the first months of 2023. The expert also said that there is a possibility of fixing the budget deficit as part of the plan for the year, but everything will depend on the level of spending.

The budget surplus in June is associated with two main factors – an increase in non-oil and gas revenues due to dividends and a decrease in expenses, the chief economist believes.BCS The world of investments” Natalia Lavrova. She also noted that the situation with budget profitability in the second half of the year may improve due to the same non-oil and gas revenues and the stabilization of oil and gas revenues due to the weak ruble. The expert noted that the main intrigue remains in terms of expenditures due to the beginning of the electoral season: “the request for expanding the expenditure side of the budget can be quite high.” As the main factor in the decline in revenues, Lavrova called the decline in oil and gas revenues (the deviation from the base level of 8 trillion rubles, decomposed by months is 600 billion rubles). She also considers it unlikely that the chances of reaching the planned base level for them before the end of the year, despite the possibility » gap.

The main reason for the decrease in the deficit is the slowdown in spending – they decreased by 0.6 trillion rubles. and were below the seasonal norm for June, notes Alexander Isakov, an economist and author of the Cold Calculation Telegram channel. The increase in non-oil taxes against May was partly due to the transfer of dividends from Sberbank (565 billion rubles), which went through the NWF and became budget revenues, the expert points out.

If the slowdown in spending proves sustainable in July, then the deficit could range from 4 to 4.5 trillion rubles, Isakov predicts.