The average price of Urals in March fell to $47.85 per barrel
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The average price for the Russian grade Urals oil in March was $47.85/bbl, informed Ministry of Finance of Russia. This is 1.86 times less than in March 2022 and 3.4% less than in February.
“The average price of Urals oil in March 2023 was $47.85/bbl, which is 1.86 times lower than in March 2022 ($89.05/bbl),” the report says.
The index recorded in February ($49.56/bbl) also turned out to be lower by 1.86 times the level of February last year.
According to the results of the first quarter, the average cost of Urals was $48.92, which is 1.81 times less than in the same period in 2022 ($88.95/bbl).
Average Urals price in 2Q 2023, predicted earlier in a conversation with Vedomosti, an expert on the stock market “BCS World of Investments” Evgeny Mironyuk, will be at $51/bbl, $57/bbl in Q3, and $64/bbl in Q4. Analyst FG “Finam” Alexander Potavin, in turn, expects a reduction in the discount on Russian oil to Brent to 15-17% as supply chains are established. He predicts that in the second quarter the export price of Urals will be in the range of $45-50/bbl, and by the end of the year it will rise to $55-60/bbl.
Earlier in February, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed lawwhich since April 1 limits the discount on Russian Urals oil in relation to Brent for the calculation of oil taxes.
In accordance with the law, if the price of Urals oil, calculated according to the current legislation, in April turns out to be less than the price of Brent oil by more than $34/bbl, then for tax purposes its price is taken to be the price of Brent minus $34/bbl. In May, the discount is set at $31/bbl. (under a similar condition, i.e. if Urals is cheaper than Brent by more than $31/bbl), in June – $28/bbl, from July 1 – $25/bbl.
The discount on Urals began to increase since October last year – after the Western countries agreed on a price ceiling for Russian oil and oil products. The average monthly price for Russian oil in September 2022 was $68.25/bbl, in October – $70.62/bbl, in November – $66.47/bbl, in December – $50.47/bbl, in January – $49.48/bbl
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