The authorities wanted to tie mortgage rates to the salaries of Russians: the initiative was criticized

The State Duma approached the Bank of Russia with a proposal to tie mortgage rates to salaries in the regions. Deputies are confident that this will ensure equal availability of housing loans for Russians living in different regions of the federation and will stimulate the development and construction of housing there. The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, for her part, proposed to work on this initiative with the government. However, experts have ambivalent assessments of this seemingly completely popular initiative.

The lower your income level, the lower your home loan rate should be. Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin approached the head of the Bank of Russia with a proposal to consider the possibility of introducing differentiation of the mortgage rate depending on average salaries in each region. Nabiullina noted many times that the preferential mortgage that citizens love should be targeted so that there are no imbalances in the real estate market. The head of the regulator also expressed concern about the increase in housing prices and the decrease in the quality of loans against the backdrop of high growth in mortgage issuance. Nabiullina noted that the high growth rate of housing lending contributes to rising prices and an increase in the cost gap between secondary and primary housing, which now exceeds 40%. In this regard, Volodin’s proposal may be an interesting alternative to popular housing lending programs with state support. However, it needs to be finalized at the government level. Moreover, according to the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, it is necessary to take into account not only the size of salaries in the regions, but also the level of mortgage penetration in the region and the scale of housing construction.

Experts differed in their assessments of the benefits to the market from this initiative. As Oleg Repchenko, head of the Analytical Center “Real Estate Market Indicators IRN.RU”, pointed out, the transition to targeted subsidies is an attempt by the Bank of Russia to gradually phase out preferential mortgages, which inflated the price “bubble” and led to an imbalance in the housing market. Thus, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of October 1, the gap in average prices between the primary and secondary markets is 42%. For comparison, before the introduction of preferential mortgages in 2020, the difference was about 10%. Refusal of large-scale subsidies and transition to targeted ones will benefit the market. Firstly, budget expenses for subsidizing mortgages will be reduced, which have increased noticeably in the context of an increase in the key rate to 15%. Secondly, prices for apartments will go down, which have risen sharply over the past 2-3 years precisely “thanks” to affordable mortgages. And this only benefits buyers, because what makes apartments affordable is not a cheap mortgage, but reasonable prices. Thirdly, banks will not receive on their balance sheet overvalued apartments, which, due to the difference in prices, today can be sold on the secondary market only at a loss. This is also beneficial for developers: because the longer the price “bubble” is inflated, the more loudly it will “burst” later.

Refusal of large-scale subsidization of mortgage rates will lead to a decrease in sales volumes, which will put pressure on prices. Most likely, if preferential mortgages are curtailed, retaining only targeted support, developers will launch their own marketing mortgage programs, but this will not be able to maintain demand at the previous level, developers will have to reconsider prices, Repchenko is sure.

However, most experts look at the authorities’ proposal with skepticism, noting its complete inadequacy and difficulty in implementation. “The idea itself is still of a framework nature,” said Alexey Popov, head of Cyan.Analyst. — There are no specifics yet regarding where and what rates should be applied. In any case, it will be necessary to create a model that will take into account the income of the population, the situation with activity in launching new projects, the provision of housing, and this information should be promptly updated. This definitely can’t be done quickly.” In addition, it is unclear what to do in this case with interregional transactions or situations where the registered address and the address where the person lives or receives income do not match. Low rates themselves are not a panacea for rising prices. The example of the Far Eastern mortgage, which led to a rapid increase in the cost of housing in the regions of its application, should be comprehensively studied when assessing such an initiative, the analyst believes.

According to Alexey Novikov, director of the mortgage lending department at Est-a-Tet, it is worth considering that not all borrowers confirm their salary using a 2-NDFL certificate when they receive a housing loan. There are those who provide a certificate in the bank’s form and apply for a mortgage using two documents. In addition, the salary level in the region varies: in the center of the region it can be higher, and in the region – lower. The cost of housing will also differ depending on the location of the facilities. As a result, launching this initiative requires an integrated approach, an understanding of the real level of salaries in a particular region and region, as well as factors influencing pricing. Among them, prices for building materials, the cost of project financing, market mechanisms of supply and demand, and not just the interest rate, play an important role.

“Calculating a mortgage rate based on, for example, the minimum or even median wage in the region may be inaccurate, because the statistical indicator does not always fully reflect the real level of well-being of the population,” the director for mortgage sales and implementation of financial instruments of the Group of Companies continues the conversation. A101″ Rustam Azizov. — Including because it does not take into account the level of expenses, the cost of products, housing and communal services, etc. At the same time, the average cost per square meter of housing in different regions can differ significantly from each other, including because developers calculate it based on the level of effective demand in each region.” It seems more appropriate to develop targeted mortgage programs that will stimulate certain categories of citizens and thereby contribute to the implementation of key government tasks. Family, Arctic and IT mortgages are already in effect (housing lending at a special low rate for specialists in the high-tech sector – editor’s note), they can be supplemented by programs for military personnel, teachers and doctors, and large families.

From the point of view of the demographic situation and increasing the economic activity of the population, comprehensive support for young borrowers seems promising. Such support may include the issuance of government certificates for part of the down payment upon marriage, as well as “youth mortgage” programs with an interest rate of 3% per annum and a period of up to 50 years. At the same time, in conditions of a high key rate, an alternative to a state-subsidized mortgage could be a tax break of 50% for young people who have taken out a mortgage loan. This will allow young families to confidently service their mortgage loans, and the state will eliminate the need to allocate trillions of rubles to subsidize rates, the expert suggested.