“The alienation will be gradual” – Kommersant FM

Nikol Pashinyan addressed the nation. The Prime Minister of Armenia, in particular, initiated the creation of a new security system for the country. Anti-government rallies continue in Yerevan and other cities of the republic. Meanwhile, information has emerged about the upcoming personal meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Spanish Granada on October 5. Kommersant FM political commentator Dmitry Drize believes that relations between Yerevan and Moscow will gradually cool down.

Nikol Pashinyan addressed the nation. The Prime Minister, in particular, asked his fellow citizens to choose between independence and the role of a “submissive backyard.” Recent events, in his opinion, have shown the ineffectiveness of the security systems in which Armenia participates. Now there is a threat of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, and if this really happens, the responsibility will fall on Azerbaijan and the Russian peacekeeping contingent that is there under the November 2020 agreements.

Pashinyan further explained why his country is ratifying the Rome Statute – this is not a challenge to the CSTO and its members, but a step aimed at strengthening the state. If anyone doesn’t know yet, Armenia thus recognizes the International Criminal Court in The Hague that it issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Russian Federation Maria Lvova-Belova. The head of government also mentioned “certain partners” who are making more and more efforts to demonstrate how vulnerable Armenia is. Apparently, he also meant Russia.

Meanwhile, a delegation of American senators is in the country. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned the Azerbaijani operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Nevertheless, the West is not taking any drastic steps such as introducing sanctions against Baku or at least trying to threaten them with them. Apparently, the parties are given a chance to reach an amicable agreement.

There is information that Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet in early October in Granada, Spain. And right now preparations for negotiations are beginning in Brussels. Actually, the main question is: where will Armenia go in the end? Another way to ask this question is: will Russia lose a key ally in the Caucasus? There is a persistent version that Moscow is seeking Pashinyan’s resignation and his replacement with a more loyal and friendly leader. Apparently, we are talking about former President Serzh Sargsyan or his people – those who are commonly called the “old guard”. They seem to belong to the Kremlin. At least they know how to find a common language and mutual understanding with him. But how the Armenian voter will react to this is also quite an interesting question.

Be that as it may, in the Russian state media Nikol Pashinyan is already an enemy of the people. At the same time, the attitude towards Azerbaijan is wary, but rather positive. Although it seems that chaos and a new big war in the Caucasus are not entirely in the interests of the Russian Federation, if only because it will inevitably affect neighboring Russian regions.

So, apparently, we will have to come to terms with Pashinyan’s existence. Especially if he refrains from any hostile actions, such as withdrawing from the aforementioned CSTO. However, if the current leadership of Armenia seriously decides to leave for the West, some measures will probably have to be taken.

Which? Let’s say there is some terrible virus in Armenian export products. Or an old debt for gas or something else will be discovered. Of course, the republic depends on its former metropolis.

Despite the fact that Armenia, as is commonly believed, including in the West, sometimes, let’s say, turns a blind eye to sanctioned goods that transit through it to the Russian Federation. Logistics, again – Yerevan airport is used by expensive Russians for their travel to near and far abroad. Conflict is not beneficial to anyone.

So there is reason to believe that Armenia will not leave Russia completely. Everything will be limited to publicly scolding each other in the media, the Internet or through other forms of communication. Meanwhile, in the long term, all this, of course, will have an impact.

The alienation will be gradual, stage-by-stage. Especially if we manage to sign a big peace treaty and begin large-scale cooperation with Azerbaijan, Turkey and the West. The vector of the country’s development will change over time. But everything can happen earlier if such a goal is set. It is not at all difficult to achieve. To break, as they say, is not to build.

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