Tankers entered sanctioned waters – Kommersant FM
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The United States imposed sanctions against tankers that transported Russian oil. The new blacklist includes 17 ships flying Liberian flags and a shipping company from the United Arab Emirates. These are yet another restrictions against the fleet of raw material carriers from Russia, which have already led to an increase in discounts on domestic oil. The United States and other G7 countries tightened control of the Urals price ceiling in December 2023, after the discounts of the Russian brand to the reference brand reached a two-year minimum.
Western pressure on oil supplies will only increase, which will cause discounts on oil to increase even more, energy expert and senior researcher at the Financial University Stanislav Mitrakhovich does not rule out: “The main consequence of American sanctions is an increase in discounts on Russian oil. The restrictions introduced, obviously, they are not capable of somehow completely destroying or killing the oil industry, and such a task is not being set. But from the point of view of discounts, they will have an effect.
What are the Americans doing? They either directly hit some companies that organize shipping, or traders, or insurers, or intimidate them so that market players demand additional risk premiums from Russian partners. And they are precisely expressed in an increased discount.
On the other hand, the glass is half full, and these discounts are still smaller than they were in, say, 2022, when they reached $30. Now, in the worst case, we can talk about $18. However, the new measures will not completely disrupt trade.
I think that the administration of sanctions is becoming manual. If we take the summer and early autumn of 2023, the size of the discount was decreasing, it was less than $10, and the Western press was full of reports that the price ceiling was not working. Then the situation changed because the general context changed: in principle, oil began to become cheaper in the world, and fears about its shortage decreased.
That is, if in the summer the Americans simply turned a blind eye to circumventing sanctions, to how Russian traders or Greeks violated them by working with raw materials at a price above $60 per barrel, then they saw that there was enough oil in the world, production growth began outside OPEC+. In this situation, the United States decided that it was possible to tighten its line of behavior, and we were faced with the fact that Russian oil prices dropped again.”
Russia’s oil export revenues in December fell to their lowest level in six months, to 14.5 billion rubles, the International Energy Agency reported. At the same time, deliveries themselves were at the highest level since March. Experts attributed this to the increase in discounts on Russian Urals and a decrease in prices for standard grades.
What can correct the situation and reverse the trend toward increasing discounts on raw materials from Russia? “Kommersant FM” discussed this with independent energy expert Dmitry Lyutyagin: “You can create your own fleet, which is what Moscow is doing. I think it’s just not enough right now.
The second tool: we can, for example, increase the volume of supplies to very friendly countries, such as China, which is capable of consuming Russian oil in fairly large volumes and processing it with subsequent shipment to other regions. Naturally, this will require an appropriate commission, which Beijing can charge.
At the same time, for the West this also means quite significant efforts to exercise appropriate control.
You just need to understand where this balance arises when the United States stops, roughly speaking, putting so much pressure in terms of control over the implementation of this price ceiling.”
Meanwhile, the Indian Oil Ministry said that Russian tankers are facing problems unloading oil due to tightening sanctions. In particular, restrictions have affected the supply of Sokol grade raw materials from the Sakhalin-1 project, and about a dozen loaded ships are idle at sea, awaiting unloading.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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