It became known when inexpensive imported wines will disappear from stores

New excise tax rates will destroy the budget segment

Already this summer, Russians will not find imported wines cheaper than 700 rubles per bottle in stores. Moreover, we are talking about products not only from France, Italy, Spain and other unfriendly countries, but also Chilean, Argentine, and South African drinks. That is, there will be no replacement of some suppliers by others in the market, as some experts and many consumers hope. The price increase associated with a threefold increase in excise taxes on wine from May 2024 will cover absolutely the entire import segment and will actually destroy its budget part.

The State Duma adopted the decision on excise taxes, which also applies to domestic producers, in November last year. From May 1, 2024, their amount will be 108 rubles (compared to 34 a year earlier), from 2025 – 112 rubles and 116 – from 2026. And from August 1, 2023 to January 1 of this year, in response to Western sanctions, customs duty rates on wines from unfriendly states were increased from 12.5% ​​to 20%.

Today, imported wine on the Russian market is slightly less than half, and 60% of this volume is made up of products from Italy, Spain and France. She has her own audience – representatives of the middle class, mostly women. As for wines from Chile, Argentina and other countries of the New World, they account for only about 10-12% of total imports. And today there are no prerequisites for them to replace goods from Europe in the inexpensive segment.

Firstly, as noted by the wine trading company Fort, there are increasing price and technical difficulties with logistics, with deliveries from distant parts of the world (New World wines are imported into Russia mainly through the ports of Turkey and Georgia). They began during the pandemic and worsened with the departure of some transport companies from the Russian Federation in March 2022. The speed of container delivery by sea has fallen and continues to decline. Secondly, new excise tax rates will inevitably affect prices. We discussed the situation with the head of the Center for the Development of National Alcohol Policy, Pavel Shapkin.

“It makes absolutely no difference whether the wine is Chilean, French or South African: excise taxes are increased three times on all imported products, without exception,” says MK’s interlocutor. – From May 1, it will be declared at new excise rates. And even if importers try to conclude an agreement with suppliers right now, the goods will reach Russia no earlier than this date, since the deal will need to be agreed upon with customs and stamps obtained from Rosalkogolregulirovanie. The legislative decision on excise taxes also applies to domestic winemakers, but they, unlike foreign ones, receive tax deductions.

And all the arguments that cheap European wines can be replaced on the market by Chilean and Argentinean ones have lost their relevance today. They were valid during the autumn import period, when an increased duty was temporarily applied to products from unfriendly countries. Very soon, the consumer will have to say goodbye to any imported wines cheaper than 700 rubles per bottle: by summer, prices will soar above a thousand, or even more than double. That is, the budget segment will disappear as a class. Stores will sell off leftovers or put new price tags on some of them. They will not sell it cheaper than under the new contract terms. In the premium segment, the price ratio is slightly different: a bottle for the current three thousand will cost 4 thousand.

How will this situation ultimately affect consumption?

-People buy alcohol from us not so much according to taste preferences, but according to price criteria. And now demand will shift even more towards cheaper products – cider, pina colada, gin and tonics. By the way, the demand for wine, displaced from consumption by low-alcohol drinks with exotic flavors, is falling all over the world. And Russia is no exception. This also came to us, but in semi-legal ways – through home-grown, artisanal beer drinks, which are not beer. People will lean on them. Instead of drinking wonderful domestic wines, which will also not keep you waiting with higher prices – in the absence of normal competition. As a result, the share of consumed wine in the total volume of alcohol sold on the market will decline. Today, for every bottle of wine sold, one bottle of vodka is sold, and 10 of beer. Wine, beer and vodka make up 80% of all alcoholic products.

-Should you hurry up when buying imported wine?

-Yes, because the range will be washed out and prices will rise. By the way, a decrease in turnover, that is, the volume of wine supplied from abroad and sold in Russia, will also be reflected in prices. Importers must maintain profitability standards while earning the same money in deteriorating conditions. Increasingly expensive logistics and rent of premises, growing costs for employees – these and many other factors (in addition to excise taxes) leave them no choice.