Sudanese civil war parties agree to US-proposed truce

The rebels in Sudan for the first time in four days of fighting with the armed forces of the country announced their readiness for a daily truce after calls from “the United States and other friendly countries”, including Russia. This was announced on Twitter by the leader of one of the parties to the conflict, Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), armed groups that grew out of the Arab Janjaweed militia. This happened after Daglo’s conversation with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. On April 14, the RSF came into conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. He holds the post of chairman of the Sovereign Council, the country’s highest body of administration, and Daglo was his deputy.

General of the Sudanese army Shams al-Din Kabashi told Al Arabiya TV channel that the 24-hour truce will start from 18.00 local time (19.00 Moscow time) on April 18 and will not be extended. Both sides report their victories on the battlefield, which in most cases are not independently confirmed. Earlier, al-Burhan announced the recognition of the RSF as a rebel organization, with which a return to the pre-war status quo is impossible.

Before that, attacks on Western diplomats began in Sudan. On the morning of April 18, according to Blinken, unidentified individuals fired on a US-flagged diplomatic convoy. EU Ambassador Aidan O’Hara was also attacked at his home in Khartoum, Josep Borrell, head of European diplomacy, said on Twitter. Prior to the truce on April 18, both sides repeatedly accused each other of not wanting to cease fire.

The West has no intention to get involved in the conflict, it understands the impossibility of determining the situation and is aware of the reputational costs of breaking the truce, says researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Grigory Lukyanov. But the assumed role of the guarantor of global security forces Washington to act, it can operate with the power of authority and promises of financial assistance, the expert notes. The last factor is decisive: there are no internal resources for development in Sudan, any force that wants to retain power in the country needs external means. While al-Burkhan and Daglo were allies, they actively bargained for both US and Russian assistance in exchange for promises to provide a logistical support point for the Navy in the Red Sea, as well as for Chinese assistance, Lukyanov lists. In the fight for Western aid, Daglo tries to present al-Burkhan as an Islamist sympathizer, while al-Burkhan demonstrates peacefulness to outside forces and promises RSF amnesty, although he did not defeat the enemy, Lukyanov said. The West has previously insisted on the admission of civilian politicians to power, but they are distancing themselves from the conflict, not wanting to bear responsibility for the inevitable aggravation of the socio-economic situation, the expert believes.

Egypt, despite the RSF capture of its troops at the Meroe airbase on the first day of fighting, declared non-interference in the internal affairs of Sudan. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi stressed on April 17 that Cairo is in touch with both sides of the conflict in order to start negotiations. According to Lukyanov, the Egyptians de facto bet on al-Burkhan as a more stable and adequate player. Egypt has long-term interests in the country related to the use of water from the Nile, says Natalia Piskunova, associate professor of world politics at Moscow State University.

The Arab League (LAS) and the African Union (AU) also made calls for peace in Sudan. The Arab League and the AU have the opportunity to influence the situation, says Piskunova. Among the Middle Eastern countries, apart from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey are in favor of a peaceful settlement of the situation in Sudan, the expert reminds. The border Ethiopia, which is interested in preventing the accumulation of refugees, will also contribute to the de-escalation of the confrontation.