Study finds 11 risk factors for dementia

The dementia risk study identified 11 key factors underlying the condition. This predictive tool is vastly superior to other available tools and can help prevent about 40% of dementia cases.

Scientists have identified 11 risk factors for dementia and used them to develop a tool that can predict whether someone will develop the disease in the next 14 years.

The number of people living with dementia worldwide is projected to nearly triple to 153 million by 2050, and experts say this poses a rapidly growing threat to future health and social care systems. But targeting key risk factors, some of which are lifestyle-related, could prevent about 40% of cases.

A new dementia risk score based on 11 largely modifiable risk factors identifies people at risk of developing the disease over the next 14 years from mid-life onwards. The results were published in the open access journal BMJ Mental Health.

The Oxford University study examined data from people aged 50 to 73 who took part in two large, long-term UK studies, the UK Biobank and Whitehall II.

In the UK Biobank study, 220,762 people with a mean age of 60 were surveyed to develop a risk assessment tool, and 2,934 people with a mean age of 57 from the Whitehall II study helped validate it.

The researchers compiled a list of 28 known risk factors for dementia and then identified the strongest predictors. This resulted in a list of 11 prognostic factors, which were then used to develop the British Biobank Dementia Risk Assessment Tool (UKBDRS).

The 11 factors included age, education, history of diabetes, depression, stroke, parental dementia, level of deprivation, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, being single, and being male.

The researchers also looked at these risk factors along with whether people carry a particular gene, APOE, which is a known risk factor for dementia. This risk management tool was named UKBDRS-APOE.

The scientists found that the UKBDRS-APOE showed the highest predictive score, followed by the UKBDRS risk assessment tool. The researchers said the tool is “significantly superior” to similar risk assessments currently available.

In addition to identifying individuals at risk, these tools can also highlight preventive measures that people can take while they still can.

The scientists point to previous work that suggests that up to 40% of cases of dementia can be prevented by changing certain lifestyle factors, such as quitting smoking, lowering high blood pressure, losing weight and reducing alcohol consumption.

The new tool could be used as an initial screening tool for dementia, they say, to classify people as “at risk”.

Those who appear to be at high risk of developing dementia, according to a risk assessment, may be prioritized for further tests, including cognitive assessment, brain scans, and blood tests.

Associate Professor Sana Suri from the University of Oxford, co-author of the study, added: “It is important to remember that this risk assessment only tells us our chances of developing dementia; it is not the final result. The importance of each risk factor is different, and given that some of the factors included in the assessment can be modified or manipulated, there are things we can all do to help reduce the risk of developing dementia. While older age (60 years and older) and APOE are at the highest risk, modifiable factors such as diabetes, depression, and high blood pressure also play a key role. For example, the estimated risk for a person who has all of these diseases would be about three times higher than for a person of the same age who does not have them.”