Stretched to the south – Kommersant

Russian trade is increasingly moving not only to the east, but also to the south, and the use of the traditionally more developed infrastructure of the western direction is limited both by the action of sanctions (including the fifth package of EU sanctions containing a ban on the operations of Russian and Belarusian carriers) and the closure of points transmission and a decrease in their throughput. According to the Belarusian customs, announced at the Eurasian Economic Forum, the number of trucks passing through Belarus daily has decreased from 7 thousand to 3.5 thousand, one of the five checkpoints on the border with Poland is working.

The decrease in turnover is comparable to the data of the EU on trade with Russia – from February last year to March of this year, the monthly volume of European exports to the Russian Federation decreased from €7.3 billion to €4.3 billion (imports fell more – almost five times, but energy supplies went mostly by sea). Cargo traffic with China, on the contrary, is growing – since the beginning of the year, the number of registered vehicles, according to the Federal Customs Service, has increased one and a half times. The growth is explained not only by increased demand, but also by the removal of covid restrictions from the Chinese side.

The increase in the flow from Asia, however, by no means compensated for the drop in direct European supplies, a significant part of them were reoriented to southern routes – this forces the expansion of checkpoints on the border of the Russian Federation with the countries of the EAEU and Georgia. In the border Upper Lars, the number of lanes should increase from 14 to 39 – it is assumed that this will increase the throughput capacity of the checkpoint by five times. The reconstruction of checkpoints on the border with Azerbaijan is also underway – according to the plan of the Ministry of Construction, this should increase the throughput capacity by seven times, and the regulatory framework for the transit of goods is being updated to expand logistics.

The sharp increase in turnover with the EAEU countries and closest neighbors, as well as the impossibility of directing all trade flows through the Eastern Polygon to the ports of the Far East, makes justified not only the development of the North-South corridor, the framework agreement on the creation of which was signed back in 2000, but also strengthening interaction between the customs of the countries of the “five”. Previously, it was the Russian side that was concerned about the control over the movement of sanctioned goods, now the EU is strengthening control over the turnover with third countries. The perception of sanctions risks, which previously limited interest in transit through Iran, is likely to have undergone significant changes following the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation. This, however, does not remove the risks of secondary sanctions from counterparties – for example, last week the Indian Gatik Ship Management, which transported Russian oil, nevertheless faced the revocation of Lloyd’s Register certificates for 21 ships.