Sociologists looked for something new among the old

Has a “new normal” emerged in Russian society after two years of a special military operation, and if so, what does it consist of? Participants in the plenary session of the XIV International Sociological Grushin Conference, which opened in Moscow, sought answers to these questions on Thursday. It is noteworthy that sociologists entrusted the search and description of key plots of the new reality to experts from other industries: the main speakers of the event were specialists in the field of international relations, social psychology, ideology and even media business.

The “new normal” is not something that has just begun, but something that has recently ended, Dmitry Trenin, a professor at the Higher School of Economics, explained to the audience. According to him, the unique situation of peace and (mostly) cooperation between the great powers has ended, and we are once again entering the “era of the warring states.” A new world order with clear rules, security standards, logistics and financial institutions will someday be formed, but this will not happen soon, the expert warned. We have entered a long military cycle, with the end of the Ukrainian conflict it will not end, the confrontation between hegemonies will continue much longer, Mr. Trenin emphasized, the world is balancing on the threshold of a full-fledged war, but indirectly it is already underway.

Despite this, noted, in turn, the director of the Moscow Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov, Russia has been and remains a demilitarized society for which war is an anomaly. Moreover, the way events unfolded in Ukraine was a big shock for our society, and primarily for the military, since “no one signed up for such a long race,” the expert believes. In his opinion, the authorities handled the situation “surprisingly well”: they managed to ensure prolonged military operations, while avoiding drastic social decisions. “It’s as if two realities have been created: one – military and the second – peaceful life,” Mr. Pukhov pointed out. Conscripts are not sent to the front, mobilization took place in a “light” format, and the growth of the defense industry has not yet placed a heavy burden on the shoulders of workers, he explained his thought. The main part of society practically does not feel the hardships of a major war, and the authorities are making enormous efforts to leave the country in a demilitarized state. Obviously, the country’s leadership also understands the risks of a protracted war and avoids historical parallels, summed up Ruslan Pukhov.

Director of the Institute for the Development of Parliamentarism Alexey Chadayev, however, expressed confidence that at the level of ideology changes in the perception of what is happening are already noticeable. As an example, he cited the “naked party” scandal: people lived for 30 years and suddenly discovered that they had “walked into the wrong door.” According to the expert, the state is abandoning the imperative that proclaims the main goal to improve the quality of life of the population. The time of Alla Pugacheva and Boris Grebenshchikov (included by the Ministry of Justice in the register of foreign agents), who became spokesmen for petty private interests, is passing, but heroism and the far-right philosopher Alexander Dugin are again in demand, Mr. Chadayev made it clear.

There is no need for any metaphysics, it’s enough just to study advertising budgets, Managing Director of the Russian Media Group Dmitry Mednikov convinced the conference participants, in the “food” category, Russian manufacturers ensured a 200% increase in advertising, the “medicinal products” category showed a tenfold increase, and Chinese advertising cars generally rushed “from scratch into space.” All this inspires optimism and promises additional public benefits, the media manager is sure.

The level of anxiety and depressive symptoms in Russian society has been 10% higher than normal for the third year now, said Timofey Nestik, head of the laboratory at the Institute of Psychology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. But at the same time, according to him, researchers do not see a significant increase in post-traumatic stress disorder, which usually accompanies intense military conflicts, but for the third year, indicators of socio-economic optimism exceed the levels of the previous five years. The expert explains this attitude by the effect of “rallying around the flag”: increasing intra-group solidarity is a powerful protective tool that works in a situation of uncontrollable threat and paradoxically increases the level of social optimism. In the context of a protracted military conflict, a set of ideas is formed, which is commonly called the “ethos of conflict”: it increases commitment to group values, but reduces the overall level of trust in society. In addition, the experience of post-conflict societies and meta-analytic studies promise a sharp, up to 30%, increase in people’s interest in politics, Mr. Nestik said. This is due to the growing importance of values ​​(this effect is already noticeable) and the need for a certain identity. Therefore, it is very important now to rebuild our outdated party system, preparing it for new challenges, the psychologist warned.

Anastasia Kornya