Sociologists have learned from Russians what should be considered a victory in the Northern Military District

In the minds of the overwhelming majority of Russians, victory in a special military operation (SVO) is in one way or another connected with the unconditional defeat of Ukraine, and for almost a quarter of respondents this result will be the annexation and consolidation of new territories in the Russian Federation, according to a survey by the Russian Field research group. According to the customer of the survey, political scientist and member of the Public Chamber Alexander Asafov, to match this “image of victory” the results already achieved during the SVO lack global recognition of the new constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the elimination of remaining threats. The head of VTsIOM, Valery Fedorov, meanwhile, believes that the Russians still do not have a single image of victory, and political scientist Vladimir Shemyakin believes that this gives the authorities freedom to interpret the results of the SVO.

The all-Russian telephone survey was conducted on October 21–29 of this year with a sample of 1,611 respondents. Russian Field sociologists estimate the statistical error of the study at 2.45%. Respondents were asked two open-ended questions allowing multiple responses.

The first question was: “What results of the SVO, in your personal opinion, can be considered a victory for Russia?” 22% of respondents found it difficult to answer or refused to answer, and sociologists divided the remaining remarks into three main groups: those who are in support of the Northern Military District (70%), those who are inclined to the peace processes (22%) and “other” (23%). The third category includes complex answers that cannot be grouped and deciphered, Russian Field explains.

The researchers also provide a detailed list of responses that they classified as support for CBO. The most popular of them (23%) was the definition of victory as “the annexation of part of the territories, the consolidation of new territories.” The top three also included “victory of Russia, complete capitulation of Ukraine” (13%) and “destruction of Ukraine as a country, inclusion of Ukraine into the Russian Federation” (9%). 5% of respondents each mentioned “fulfillment of all goals of the Northern Military District,” “the destruction of fascism” and “a peace agreement on our terms (assigning territories to Russia, non-aligned status of Ukraine),” 4% would consider “the overthrow of the current government of Ukraine” a victory, and 3% believe , that for this it is necessary to “push back the borders of NATO.” The same number of respondents want to achieve “demobilization, denationalization of Ukraine.”

As sociologists explain, they included “peace, so that everyone is alive” (12.1%) and those that directly talked about “withdrawal of troops, ending the war” (5.9%) as “peace-oriented,” as sociologists explain. True, in the second case, respondents did not specify to what borders the troops should be withdrawn (for these people, the very fact of withdrawing troops and saving lives is primarily important). This group also included answers in which people noted that “there is no victory in such a situation” (4%).

Russian Field also emphasizes that both groups, both “peace-minded” and “SVO-supporting,” overlap in many ways, because respondents were not limited in the number of answers. “In general, this is a stable group from study to study: people generally express support, but would like to finish it, move on to negotiations, etc.,” sociologists note.

The second question concerned the emotions that prevail in the environment of the respondents, and here the researchers stated the actual parity of positive and negative feelings. Experts classified the following answers as the first: “joy, happiness, inspiration, optimism” (22%), “calmness, tranquility” (13%) and generally “positive, good” emotions (3%). In total, this block of answers scored 38%. There were slightly more negative emotions (39%): these are “fear, anxiety, worry” (16%), “sadness, sadness, grief, pessimism” (14%), “anger, anger, irritation” (6%), and also simply “negative” emotions, “uncertainty, confusion” and “fatigue” (1% each). Sociologists defined 16% of the answers as neutral, and 20% of respondents found it difficult or refused to answer this question.

Let us remind you that Russian Field regularly surveys Russians about their attitude towards the SVO. According to the results of the most recent of these surveys (June 16–19, 2023), 58% of respondents rated the progress of the Northern Military District as successful for the Russian army, and 21% held the opposite point of view. At the same time, the majority of respondents would support the president’s hypothetical decision on both a new offensive on Kyiv (64%) and a transition to peace negotiations (72%). If respondents were asked to choose between continuing the CBO and starting negotiations, their answers were divided almost equally: the first option was preferred by 45%, the second by 44%.

According to the survey’s customer, Alexander Asafov, the results of the study, despite the different answers, indicate that Russians definitely have a common “image of victory.” “The received markers show support for the decisions and statements of state leaders,” the political scientist is confident. This, in his opinion, refutes expert hypotheses about citizens’ fatigue with the topic of SVO. “People have quite clearly and distinctly formed expectations about how it should end and under what circumstances,” Mr. Asafov interprets the survey results. “Kommersant” also asked him whether it is possible to conclude that for those 23% of respondents who are ready to consider the “annexation and consolidation” of new territories a victory, the results already achieved by Russia in the form of the annexation of four new constituent entities of the Russian Federation are enough. “What is needed is consolidation. I guess this most likely means some kind of global recognition. Moreover, I think that the answer presupposes an unambiguous removal of the threat,” said the political scientist.

“From a sociological point of view, a direct parallel cannot be drawn; nevertheless, the question was not quite like that. But it is possible to put forward such a hypothesis based on the answers,” representatives of Russian Field answered a similar question.

General Director of VTsIOM Valery Fedorov, based also on the data of his organization, believes that there is no “single formed image of victory” in Russian society. “The only thing we can say in general is that peace is needed as soon as possible, but it must be a just peace. And justice, in our understanding, necessarily includes the retention of already annexed territories by Russia,” explains the sociologist.

Political scientist Vladimir Shemyakin explains the different answers about the image of victory by the fact that recently the initially stated goals of the SVO are mentioned less and less often. “Respondents now have a certain freedom in constructing an image of victory. This is a very difficult question. And we can say that now in society they don’t even know what the “correct” answer to this question is from the point of view of the authorities,” says the expert. And this, in his opinion, gives the authorities some advantage: “I believe that with a fairly clear and uniform justification by official propaganda of the victory of the achieved result, the majority of the population will agree with this in the medium term.” As for those same 23% of respondents who advocate “the annexation of new territories, the consolidation of new territories,” they are almost ready to recognize the “current status quo” as a victory, the expert suggests. “At the same time, the current multi-vector image of victory, shown in the study, gives the authorities carte blanche – both to continue the SVO and to complete it,” adds the political scientist.

Andrey Vinokurov