Serbian President dissolves parliament early

Serbian President and ex-leader of the ruling Progressive Party Aleksandar Vucic dissolved the Skupstina (parliament) on November 1. Extraordinary elections (simultaneously with municipal ones in 65 communities) will be held on December 17.

The government motivates the need for early elections by ensuring “a higher degree of democracy, reducing tension in society, and stopping incitement to hatred.” This, according to the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic, should confirm “the right to freely express opinions and views on certain political, economic and other issues, including the further affirmation of European values.” Serbia has been a candidate member of the EU since 2012.

Elections in Serbia are scheduled amid intensifying criticism of the government. The reason was the shootings in May 2023, after which the authorities obliged the population to hand over their weapons en masse.

This was followed by a crisis in relations with Kosovo. It has been going on since December 2022, when the authorities of the unrecognized autonomy demanded that local Serbs change Serbian car license plates to Kosovar ones under the threat of fines and confiscations.

In February 2023, the parties agreed on a settlement plan, which included Serbia’s refusal to block Kosovo’s accession to international organizations, including the UN. In April, Albanian parties won elections in the Serbian municipalities of Kosovo, which were ignored by local Serbs. The Serbs staged mass protests and clashes with Kosovo special forces began.

On June 14, Pristina banned the entry of cars with Serbian license plates. In September, the first incident since 2013 occurred with the death of four Kosovo Serbs in an armed clash with Kosovo security forces. Kosovo blamed Belgrade, Vucic denied Serbia’s responsibility.

On October 31, he met with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Following the meeting, the Serbian president said that the main obstacle to joining the EU is the refusal to impose sanctions against Russia and recognize the independence of Kosovo.

Under Vucic, early elections in Serbia have become regular, notes Anastasia Malesevic, a researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies. In her opinion, the current ones are connected with an attempt to gain time in connection with Western pressure on the Kosovo issue. “The opposition is divided into a “pro-Western” liberal bloc, which usurped political control over mass protests in the summer, and a conditionally “patriotic” bloc that criticizes Vucic for “betraying” national interests from conservative positions,” recalls Malešević.

The expert suggests that the coalition around Vucic’s Progressive Party may include Ivica Dacic’s Socialist Party, and probably also the creation of a government-controlled, but formally independent party “for Serbia in BRICS.” “Vučić does not lead his party, but retains control over the processes: support for the party does not decrease, but its anti-rating increases. Municipal elections promise a tough fight, where the opposition has a chance,” Maleshevich believes.

For Vučić, early elections are a traditional vote of confidence and an attempt to weaken the opposition by showing it the vox populi and thus neutralizing some of the claims, including on the Kosovo issue, says Yakov Smirnov, a junior researcher at the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. According to him, their holding demonstrates to internal and external audiences the president’s confidence in his positions. Smirnov believes that no major changes should be expected in the assembly. In the new elections, the Serbian Progressive Party, in a bloc with the socialists, having gained its 48–52% with the support of right-wing parties, will again form a government, the expert believes.

The main battle will take place at the municipal level and in large cities, where the positions of progressives, socialists and the right are not so strong, Smirnov believes. Here they will act as a united bloc with the Serbian Radical Party of Vojislav Seselj. “It is not clear how much Vucic will be able to calm the opposition, but before and after the elections, attention will be maximally focused on the election campaign. This is part of the country’s large political theater, which allows Vučić and his supporters to remain in power for almost 10 years,” the expert concluded.