Sberbank announced its forecast for Russian GDP growth in the next three years
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The annual growth of the Russian economy from 2024 to 2026 will be 1.2%, inflation will drop to 4% by 2025, and the key rate will be 8% in 2025. This forecast was presented by Vice President, Director of the Finance Department of Sberbank Taras Skvortsov as part of Sber Investor Day. The event was broadcast on website credit organization.
“In general, for the next three years we set a fairly accurate forecast for GDP dynamics. We assume that growth will be 1.2% annually. At the same time, inflation will slow down and reach the Bank of Russia’s target level of 4% by 2025. Following this, the key rate will also decrease; we are targeting 8% for 2025,” said Mr. Skvortsov.
According to Sberbank’s forecast, the Russian banking sector will grow by 10% annually over the next three years. The bank estimates that the lending sector will be under pressure in 2024. However, in 2025 and 2026, given the rate cut and the gradual easing of regulation by the Bank of Russia, retail and corporate lending will accelerate. Customer funds in banks will grow at 10% in 2025–2026.
In 2022, the Russian banking sector, against the backdrop of sanctions, made a profit of 203 billion rubles. Based on the results of 2023, the Bank of Russia awaits the profit of Russian banks is at the level of 2.9–3 trillion rubles. Since the beginning of the year, the sector has already earned 2.9 trillion rubles. Despite this, the net profit of the banking sector is decreasing for the second month in a row, at the end of October it amounted to 256 billion rubles.
According to Bank of Russia calculations, due to rising rates on liabilities, banks may get less 600 billion rubles. until next fall. From the regulator’s forecasts it follows that Russia’s GDP in 2024 will vary from 0.5 to 1.5%, and in 2025 – from 1 to 2%. Due to the current monetary policy, annual inflation will drop to 4.0–4.5% in 2024 and will remain close to 4% thereafter.
Read more about the regulator’s forecasts in the Kommersant article. “Not so much expensive, but long”.
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