“Sanctions have been introduced, now should we lift them?”

If sanctions are ever lifted from Russia, then, as they say, not in this life. Well, or let’s be more careful: not this year. There are no hints of a different scenario yet. The European Union continues to toughen its rhetoric towards Moscow; the position of the EU member states, as well as the governing bodies represented by the European Parliament and the European Commission, remains generally unshakable. And the other day it turned out that Brussels, which has just agreed on the 12th package of anti-Russian measures, is already preparing the 13th and 14th sanctions packages.

This was announced by Czech Member of the European Parliament Tomas Zdekhovsky. For now, the contents of the new upcoming packages of sanctions remain secret. But the main thing here is not the details, but the given. It was confirmed on condition of anonymity by a diplomatic source in the mission of one of the EU countries in Brussels. According to the diplomat, the European Union will not lift sanctions even if the fighting in Ukraine ends and either a peace treaty or a ceasefire agreement is signed.

In general, this is exactly the classic case when minced meat (in this case, sanctioned) cannot be reversed. The main snag lies in the procedure for making sanction decisions itself. If there is no unanimity, no solidarity position, then the issue is closed. It is enough that one of the 27 member countries of the alliance (for example, Estonia) refuses to support the abolition of restrictions under any pretext, and the topic will be shelved for a long, long time. And there will probably be at least several such states. And yet, hope dies last. We asked experts under what conditions sanctions could be lifted from Russia, or at least weakened, and how realistic such a scenario is. After all, it is obvious that the situation creates a lot of problems for both the country and the population: there is immeasurably less good in it than bad. And one more thing: how will the collective West, where the United States plays the main role, ultimately deal with the frozen assets of the Central Bank worth $300 billion? Is there a chance that they will ever be restored to their former status?

Alexey Krichevsky, financial analyst, author of the economic telegram channel:

“Without resolving geopolitical issues, the easing of sanctions is extremely unlikely, not to mention their lifting. The essence of the issue is very simple: America benefits from sanctions working, because, firstly, its exports are growing, and secondly, production is moving to the United States from Europe, and, accordingly, the taxpayer base is growing. Purely theoretically, disagreements over sanctions may grow within the EU, and accordingly, the topic of easing restrictive measures will be raised more and more often. But in the foreseeable future, over the horizon of a year or two, the implementation of such a scenario is unlikely.”

Oleg Buklemishev, director of the Center for Economic Policy Research, Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University:

“The story with anti-Russian sanctions is very tough: I think they will not be lifted even if the SVO ends. Yes, there is a problem with the inertia of EU legislation. But the main thing is different: the circumstances, the root causes due to which they were introduced, have not been eliminated. If you simply cancel them now, for the West it will be tantamount to admitting either its mistake or defeat in the confrontation with Russia. I recently discussed the topic with diplomats, they said: “How could it be otherwise? Sanctions have been introduced, now should we lift them?” As for the situation with the frozen assets of the Central Bank, it will not be resolved in any way – neither during nor after the end of the SVO. I am sure that this money is lost for Russia; in fact, it is no longer ours.”

Nikita Maslennikov, leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies:

“We can’t expect sanctions to be lifted. On the contrary, sanctions pressure will increase, and we will see new rhetoric from the West when restrictive measures begin to be linked to Russia’s “obligations” to restore Ukraine. As for the Central Bank’s assets, if they decide to confiscate them, the consequences will be dire, fraught with a global crisis and fragmentation of the entire world economy. This will create a completely different configuration of both international and foreign economic relations. I think it won’t come to this: both in the USA and in Europe they will try to come up with something more gentle. But our nerves will constantly shake. The interest received from this $300 billion will most likely be used in some way to our detriment. This is not significant, the fundamental question is: will they confiscate the “body”? So far, one thing is clear: sanctions will not weaken and, moreover, will not disappear even after the hypothetical end of hostilities in Ukraine.”

Alexey Vedev, director of the Center for Structural Research, RANEPA:

“Even in a conservative scenario, sanctions remain, and for the medium term. The situation with the frozen assets of the Central Bank will not be resolved in any way and will not go beyond the discussion about the use of interest. But it is unlikely that the “body” itself will be confiscated.”

Konstantin Ordov, head of the Department of Financial Markets at Plekhanov Russian Economic University:

“Europe is gradually sliding into recession. As problems in their economies grow, Europeans turn a blind eye to cases of sanctions circumvention. Their business eagerly participates in parallel import schemes to Russia. Sanctions from the EU exist largely in the form of a kind of bogeyman; they are rather declarative in nature; in 2023 this became more than obvious. They will not be canceled publicly, declaratively, but in fact, behind the scenes this process is underway. As for the frozen $300 billion, this is an unprecedented amount of funds, which in one way or another is now working for the European economy and banks. The situation itself is outside the legal framework; Brussels cannot confiscate these reserves. I think sooner or later they will return to us.”