Russians named enemy drones, the fall of the ruble and rising gasoline prices as their main fears

The main source of fears for Russians in the third quarter of 2023 was undoubtedly enemy drones. This conclusion was reached by the authors of the latest report as part of the National Anxiety Index. KROS”, prepared by the communications company of the same name. However, in general, the second half of the year began calmer than the first ended, and military fears were replaced by economic and even cultural ones, experts say. For example, the absence of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” from movie screens worried social network users more than rumors about a new wave of mobilization.

In July—September the total anxiety index, associated with drone attacks, amounted to 811.1 mediajung (the unit of anxiety reproduction used in the study). This is almost three times more than the nearest fear caused by the fall of the ruble (273.2 media units), and also more than the index of all other fears recorded by experts combined (713.7 media units).

Let us remind you that KROS ranks the anxieties of Russians based on an analysis of media news (“media index”), as well as posts and comments on social networks (“social media index”). The total index shows the scale of the “information wave” of a particular topic, and the “survival” index shows how much it excited ordinary Internet users (the ratio of the “social media index” to the “media index”).

Fear of drones replaces broader fears of sabotage that dominated the second quarter (see “Kommersant” dated July 24).

“The very word ‘drones’ has become synonymous with threat and danger for citizens,” note the study’s authors.

According to their data, Russians were most alarmed in the third quarter by the attacks on the Crimean Bridge on July 17 (surface drones were used), non-residential buildings in the capital on July 24, skyscrapers in Moscow City on July 30 and August 1, as well as a raid on seven regions at once August 30.

In addition to drones and the fall of the ruble, the top ten reasons for concern included rising gasoline prices (69.1 mediajung), difficulties with traveling to Europe (66.3), the situation in civil aviation (62.3), and loss of position in space ( 60.6), electric scooters (59.8), rumors of mobilization (59), rising prices for taxis (34.8) and the lack of release of Hollywood films – “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” (28.7).

At the same time, in general, the third quarter turned out to be much calmer for Russians than the second. According to KROS, the overall level of anxiety has almost halved.

“The summer period has become a “unloading” period for society,” the study says. In support of this thesis, the authors cite the high level of “take-up” of worries that are on the periphery of the media agenda—the failure of the Luna-25 mission and the ban on the distribution of Hollywood new releases. According to KROS, these topics were discussed on social networks one and a half times more actively than in the media: according to the “survival” index, they even surpassed rumors about a new wave of mobilization, which were spreading against the backdrop of tougher penalties for failure to appear at the military registration and enlistment office, an increase in the conscription age and the publication of fake orders authorities.

“In the third quarter there were no strong alarm triggers, such as the events of June 23–24 (the Wagner PMC mutiny.— “Kommersant”). Society was in a fairly calm state,” explains KROS Analytics Director Andrey Lebedev. “Yes, there were incidents with drones, but they gradually got used to them. Against this background, concerns about issues that were rather on the periphery of the mainstream media agenda were at the top. For some, the economy was more important (the fall of the ruble, rising gasoline prices), for some it was culture (the situation with cinema), for others it was the topic of the country’s prestige (space). This “localization” of anxieties is an indicator that different strata in society live with their own worries and there were virtually no strong anxieties that unite all.” A similar picture could be observed in 2021, adds Petr Kiryan, director of media projects at CROS: “Perhaps Russian society is partly returning to the balance of expectations and anxieties that was recorded at the end of Covid.”

VTsIOM General Director Valery Fedorov agrees that in the third quarter Russians were calmer than in the second. “April-June was the time of the highly publicized Ukrainian “counter-offensive” (counter-offensive.— “Kommersant”), massive drone attacks in Moscow and other cities, Prigozhin’s rebellion. In the third quarter, it became clear that the “counter-offensive” had failed, that drones were unpleasant but not fatal, and that the rebellion had not taken place. Purely military and political concerns have decreased significantly. In its place came economic worries, the trigger for which was the sharp fall of the ruble,” explains the sociologist.

Andrey Prah