Russians expect the future president to take care of their material well-being

Increased well-being is the main request of voters for the future president, sociologists have found. As follows from a survey conducted by the Russian Field research group, almost half of the respondents, when asked what results they expect from the election of the head of state in March 2024, said that they primarily expect an increase in their material well-being. A third expect improvements in the social sphere, and only 24% expect the end of the special military operation (SVO). 14% of respondents listed certain types of political and legislative improvements, and 8% said that they did not expect anything or were already satisfied with everything.

The study was conducted on September 2–10 using a telephone survey commissioned by the T&M consulting bureau; 1,596 respondents from a nationwide sample took part in it; the error was within 2.5%. Respondents were asked the question: “When voting for a presidential candidate, what results of his election do you want to see?” The question was open-ended, that is, several answers could be given to it.

From the survey it follows that most often the winner of the 2024 elections is expected to improve the material and economic situation of the people: raising wages (8%), lowering prices and taxes (7%), “so that everyone lives better” (16%) or at least no worse (7%), as well as economic growth in general (4%) – in total, 48% of respondents gave answers of this kind. Russians aged 30–44, as well as respondents with higher education and low-income people, most often hope for improved material well-being.

Slightly less—a total of 31% of respondents—expect changes for the better in the social sphere. This is an increase in pensions and an increase in social assistance (14%), an improvement in the situation in healthcare (9%) and education (6%). Such values ​​are most often a priority for women and representatives of the 60+ age group.

In third place (24% of responses) is the topic of peace: it is most actively raised by respondents aged 45–59 and over 60 years old, as well as people with higher education. 15% of respondents want “the war to end and peace to come,” another 7% insist on victory in the Northern Military District, and 2% talk about the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine. Policy and legislative improvements (with a total of 14% of responses) are the fourth most popular option. Among them are “honest, fair government” (5% of respondents), “the fight against corruption” (3%) and even “to lift sanctions, develop diplomacy and relations with other countries” (2%). Finally, answers like “I don’t expect anything / I’m happy with everything” were preferred by 8% of respondents, while 18% found it difficult to answer.

The current SVO agenda has not bypassed the upcoming elections, pushing many social issues into the background, Garegin Mitin, partner of the T&M consulting bureau, comments on the survey results. For example, raising the retirement age, which was so urgent not long ago, now worries only 1% of voters. At the same time, the lawyer stipulates, a request for peace can be filled with different content, because each respondent put into his answer his own understanding of what is happening: someone is waiting for a complete victory in the Northern Military District, and someone is ready to be satisfied with the conclusion of peace within the borders of the new constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Finally, there are those who insist on the withdrawal of troops from the territory of Ukraine, although there are few of them, notes Mr. Mitin.

In any case, the expert emphasizes, economic well-being remains in first place for the voter. Moreover, the current crisis has only exacerbated the problem: rising prices, rising inflation, an unstable exchange rate of the national currency – people simply do not understand what will happen next. At the same time, voters give priority to general well-being (16%) over personal well-being (4%), Garegin Mitin draws attention: “Probably, both some deep-seated stereotypes (“Russian conciliarity”) and rationalism played a role here – without general prosperity it is impossible to build a comfortable life separate family.” In his opinion, this prioritization suggests that the main theme of the upcoming presidential campaign will be the country’s development, and not the conventional thesis “Russia is surrounded by enemies.” Which, however, does not cancel the phenomenon of “rallying around the flag” as a motive for mobilizing voters, adds Mr. Mitin.

Let us recall that, meeting last week with the governors elected in September 2023, President Vladimir Putin also emphasized that, having won a landslide victory in the elections, regional heads are now simply obliged to meet voters’ hopes for positive changes that will lead to an improvement in the quality and standard of living . External pressure has become a powerful incentive to unlock one’s own potential; this is a time of new opportunities, Mr. Putin explained.

In fact, during the campaign that starts in December, presidential candidates will have to take into account both the social and geopolitical components of their election agenda, political scientist Alexei Makarkin is sure. First of all, he explains, that in the minds of Russians it is the president who is responsible for foreign policy. In addition, third place for the topic of SVO is a rather serious result, the expert believes, especially considering that many people willingly talk about pensions and salaries, but avoid “traumatic” topics. But the election messages on this topic will be simple and understandable, that is, they will not differ much from those that were heard before, Mr. Makarkin is sure.

Anastasia Kornya