Russian, Syrian and Turkish defense ministers meet in Moscow

In Moscow on December 28, tripartite talks were held between the heads of the ministries of defense of Russia, Syria and Turkey, Sergei Shoigu, Ali Mahmoud Abbas and Hulusi Akar. This was reported by the press service of the Russian Defense Ministry. In parallel, a meeting was held between the heads of intelligence of the three countries – the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, the head of the Turkish intelligence department, Hakan Fidan, and the head of the Syrian military intelligence department, Rafik Shahad.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation noted the constructive nature of the meetings and announced the need to continue interaction in this format in the interests of further stabilizing the situation in Syria.

The press service of the Turkish Defense Ministry reported on its website that the meeting discussed “the Syrian crisis, the problem of refugees and joint efforts to combat all terrorist organizations in Syria.” Ankara also considers the formation of the Syrian Kurds SDF / YPG, which, in its opinion, are associated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), recognized as terrorist in Turkey, as a terrorist organization. Since mid-November, the Turkish Air Force has been conducting airstrikes on targets in territories controlled by the Syrian Kurds.

“An agreement was reached to continue meetings in a trilateral format to ensure and maintain stability in Syria and the region as a whole,” the press service of the Turkish Defense Ministry explained after the trilateral meeting in Moscow.

Earlier, on December 15, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in the context of his repeatedly stated plans to conduct another military operation against the Syrian Kurds, said that during a recent telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he proposed to hold a meeting of the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Syria, and before that – meeting of the heads of the Ministry of Defense, Foreign Ministries and intelligence services. According to the Turkish leader, “there are no offenses in politics”, this looks like an allusion to his previous demands for Bashar al-Assad to leave the presidency of Syria. Erdogan also held Assad responsible for the victims of the civil war that has been going on in the country since 2011. Diplomatic relations between Syria and Turkey, which supports part of the armed Syrian opposition, have been severed since March 2012.

On December 25, the Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah reported that Ankara and Moscow are negotiating to open airspace over Syria for the Turkish Air Force for a possible cross-border operation.

Turkey also does not give up its intentions to conduct a ground operation against the Kurds, but first wants to “clear the field” for it, says Viktor Nadein-Raevsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS. At the same time, Ankara understands that before the operation it is necessary to reach agreements with Russia, whose military has been present in Syria since 2015 at the invitation of the country’s official authorities. In particular, the Turks would like to avoid trouble in the form of Russian air defense work on their aviation, Nadein-Raevsky notes. Another thing is that Turkey’s ground operation involves the occupation of additional regions of northern Syria – in addition to those that are already actually occupied by its proxies and its own army, but Russia is hardly eager to go forward in this direction, the expert says. The fact that representatives of the Syrian army and intelligence participated in the meeting gives hope that the occupation will not come to an end, and the Syrian Arab army, with the support of Moscow, will ensure the security of the border without intervention from Ankara, Nadein-Raevsky notes.

The preparation or, conversely, the cancellation of the Turkish ground operation is more of a reason to launch contacts, says Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs. This agenda allows Damascus and Ankara to save face after mutual accusations and impossible demands on each other, Semyonov notes. Now there is an important reason that will allow leveling those sharp corners that were difficult to get around, the expert believes. Russia has long proposed a similar format of normalization, back in 2019, when the restoration of ties was based on the resuscitation of the Syrian-Turkish agreements in Adana in 1998 regarding joint measures to combat the PKK. Now new, convenient conditions have arisen to restart this process, Semyonov is sure. Russian efforts and mediation will certainly facilitate the search for a compromise, the expert believes.

There may be many options for how normalization will begin, Semyonov argues. The most beneficial for all parties would be to resolve the issue of Manbij and Tel Rifat through the establishment of full government control over them with the absolute disarmament of all local formations affiliated with the SDF / YPG / PKK. The Syrian Kurds, of course, may consider their interests infringed and refuse further dialogue with Damascus, but in this situation it is impossible to satisfy the interests of all actors, especially those who have chosen the United States as their patrons, and use the dialogue with Moscow and Damascus as a backup option, concludes Semenov.