Russian exports stopped growing – Newspaper Kommersant No. 12 (7457) of 01/24/2023

Mirror data on the state of Russia’s foreign trade, analyzed by analysts from the Solid Numbers Telegram channel, allow us to record that in November 2022, exports of goods decreased for the first time since January 2021. Such a decline in annual terms amounted to 8% with exports of about $45 billion. In the trade turnover of the Russian Federation, the most significant share was with China – 27% of exports (it caught up with the EU, whose share decreased from 40% at the beginning of 2022) and 40% of imports .

The main beneficiary of the realignment of trade flows remains India, which saw a sixfold increase in shipments in November 2022 compared to November 2021, with shipments peaking in September. Exports to Malaysia actually tripled, and to Hungary doubled, due to increased energy commodity exports. Imports of goods fell by 10% year-on-year to $25 billion. Deliveries from Armenia quadrupled, Turkey doubled, and Uzbekistan grew by 81% year-on-year.

From the Central Bank’s estimates of the balance of payments for the fourth quarter, it follows that the export of goods and services in the last quarter of 2022 decreased by 15%, and imports – by 9% in annual terms. According to the authors of the Hard Figures Telegram channel, exports of goods in December amounted to almost $43 billion, down 25%, while imports could amount to $28 billion, minus 9% in annual terms.

Of particular interest are estimates of the structure of exports (see chart). It follows from them that in the fourth quarter of 2022, with a decrease in revenues from energy raw materials, the share of other goods noticeably increased, against the backdrop of lower prices for other main export goods of the Russian Federation – in particular, metals, wood, coal. The data of the Federal Customs Service (see “Kommersant” dated January 23) also testify to a decrease in export earnings at the end of the year, although according to the Central Bank, financial flows in export industries resumed growth in December, after a failure in October and stabilization in November 2022. The author of the Solid Numbers Telegram channel, Rodion Latypov, believes that such a significant and growing share of other exports can be explained either by an incorrect assessment of the export of services, or by the fact that the export of the latter could be noticeably higher due to expensive freight.

Artem Chugunov