Russia was aimed at Los Angeles – Newspaper Kommersant No. 228 (7429) of 08.12.

The Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) is considering various options related to the near future of the sports industry, which, after the start of a military special operation in Ukraine, actually found itself in complete international isolation. One of them still provides for the participation of domestic athletes in the next Olympic Games: they will be held in 2024 in Paris. Given the latest statements by the head of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), Thomas Bach, about the “depoliticization” of sports, there are reasons for optimism. However, other scenarios seem to be at least no less realistic. They suggest a full-fledged return of Russia to world sports no earlier than 2026.

The near future of Russian sports became the central topic of the speech at the ROC executive committee by its president Stanislav Pozdnyakov, who remained the only candidate in the next election of the head of the organization: they will be held on December 20. This topic has been extremely relevant since the end of February this year. Immediately after the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, the International Olympic Committee released recommendations insisting on the actual isolation of domestic sports. They were followed by the vast majority of international sports federations, who removed the Russians from participation in official competitions.

Meanwhile, from the statements of Stanislav Pozdnyakov, it followed that the ROC still hopes that the Russian team will be able to perform at the next Olympics: it will be held in 2024 in Paris.

The variant with the performance of the Russian team in France, as it turned out, is laid down in the document adopted by the ROC called “Strategy-2028”. However, there are also options that Stanislav Pozdnyakov described as “reserve”. They provide for a “full-fledged” return of Russia to the Olympic movement “not earlier than” 2026 – it will be the winter Olympics in Italy. At the same time, the medal task for the national team in the “Strategy-2028” is not even connected with the Italian Games, but with those that will be held two years after them in Los Angeles. According to Stanislav Pozdnyakov, Russia “has the necessary reserves” to get into the top three of the medal standings. The last time at the Summer Olympics, the Russian team was in the top three for a very long time – in Beijing in 2008.

Explaining the existence of an optimistic scenario, Stanislav Pozdnyakov referred to the “diplomatic work” carried out by the ROC, adding that he had “repeatedly talked” with IOC President Thomas Bach and other leaders of the parent structure.

“None of them said they didn’t want to see the Russians at the competition. There are countries that are radical and want a split, but believe me, they are in the minority,” Mr. Pozdnyakov explained.

In his opinion, the “isolationist” policy brings “more harm” to the IOC itself and the Olympic movement as a whole than to Russia.

In addition, Stanislav Pozdnyakov pointed out that the sanctions expire on December 17, imposed to Russia in 2019 at the initiative of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) that applied to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), which recognized the Russian Anti-Doping Agency (RUSADA) as not complying with the anti-doping code in connection with the discovered manipulations with the database of the Moscow Anti-Doping Laboratory. The sanctions package included, among other things, the performance of Russian athletes at the most significant competitions, including the Olympic Games and all world championships, in a neutral status for two years. Mr. Pozdnyakov is sure that there are no grounds for extending these sanctions, and the Russian side has fulfilled all the conditions set before it.

It seems, however, that despite the optimism of the ROC, the likelihood of developments that are not too favorable for Russia is still quite high. In any case, Thomas Bach’s statements following the meeting of the IOC Executive Committee that ended on Wednesday suggested that he, too, had a variety of scenarios in mind.

On the one hand, Mr. Bach specified that “there are no changes” in the position of the IOC towards Russia, calling the sanctions applied to Russian sports “protective measures.” On the other hand, he noted that his structure is looking for ways to return to the “uniting mission” and sets itself the task of “not allowing the sport to become completely politicized.” Moreover, what Thomas Bach understands by the “depoliticization” of sports became clear when, as a positive example of “preserving the integrity of sports competitions,” he cited the National Hockey League (NHL) championship and tennis tournaments in which Russian athletes still perform and “receive support from the fans”, and as a negative – again, the tennis story with the refusal of the British government allow Russians and Belarusians at Wimbledon.

In addition, according to Thomas Bach, the same point of view is shared by French President Emmanuel Macron, who is sure that “representatives of all countries, including those at war,” should take part in the 2024 Olympics.

The “Russian question”, according to Thomas Bach, is included in the agenda of the so-called Olympic summit. This event with the participation of the leaders of the Olympic movement and, in particular, the presidents of the federations will be held on December 9th. Stanislav Pozdnyakov is invited to it.

Its prompt solution is highly desirable for Russia. The fact is that in the coming weeks, the main block of qualifying competitions before the Paris Olympics begins. The extension of the suspension to them will automatically mean that the Russian national team, at best, will be able to go to Paris in a radically truncated line-up.

With the sanctions implemented at the request of WADA, it is not excluded, everything is also not so simple because of the case of figure skater Kamila Valieva. During the February Olympics in Beijing, she became involved in a high-profile scandal after it became known that the banned drug trimetazidine was found in her sample dated December 25, 2021. Because of this, the IOC has not yet held an awards ceremony for the winners of the team tournament in figure skating, won by the Russian team with Ms. Valieva in the lineup.

RUSADA, which was ordered by the international sports authorities to investigate the incident with the figure skater, reported on its completion back in mid-September, referring to the exceptional status of Kamila Valieva, who, due to her youth (she turned 16 after the end of the Olympics), is the so-called protected person. Paragraph 4.1 of the International Standard for Results Management allows for the protection of the interests of young athletes to make confidential “all processes and procedures related to results management, including the prosecution and the final decision.” The Russian agency clarified that “it does not intend to announce the date of the hearing, the decision or other details in the figure skater’s case.”

Shortly thereafter, WADA, without waiting for the results of the internal Russian investigation, handed over “Valiyeva’s case” in CAS. The arbitration report confirmed that this happened, as the agency decided that the authorities responsible for it – that is, primarily RUSADA – deliberately delayed the process, “not meeting a reasonable deadline.” The punishment that WADA demanded for Kamila Valieva also looks indicative – four years of disqualification, that is, in fact, the maximum possible period that does not take into account the peculiarities of the figure skater’s status.

Alexey Dospekhov