Russia faces a shortage of couriers: experts assess the risks for the labor market

What did Ivan Aleksandrovich Khlestakov used to say? “And at that very moment there were couriers and couriers running through the streets. Couriers… Can you imagine, thirty-five thousand couriers alone!” Almost two centuries have passed since the events of Gogol’s immortal “The Inspector General,” but it reads like an illustration of today’s life. People in yellow or green uniforms and with enormous boxes on their backs are an indispensable attribute of modern Russian megacities. The demand for these workers is growing, significantly outstripping supply and, accordingly, increasing the personnel shortage. According to estimates, in 2024 the shortage of couriers in the country may not be thirty-five, but almost an order of magnitude more – 300 thousand people.

Since the end of 2023, the number of corresponding vacancies has increased by 25%; now the shortage is approximately 140 thousand people in the market. Today, more than 1 million couriers work in Russia, according to a study by the delivery service Restomania. The authors attribute the difficult staffing situation to two circumstances – the development of the e-commerce sector and the busier schedules of citizens who prefer to order home delivery – “a lot of resources are spent on work and household processes, so it is becoming increasingly difficult to personally visit stores and restaurants “

Another conclusion: the average age of couriers has increased significantly. “Previously, ideal candidates were considered men from 18 to 45 years old. But now the courier service has begun to accept women, students and pensioners, the latter number is 20%,” the researchers write. The service estimates the average salary of a courier in the country in 2024 at 73.8 thousand rubles. In addition, according to his data, the top 5 cities by the number of vacancies include Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and Nizhny Novgorod.

It must be said that there are several persistent stereotypes and misconceptions associated with the activities of couriers. For example, it is believed that all of them receive over 100 thousand rubles a month. In fact, the figure in the vacancy does not always equal the real income of a particular person. The salary of a delivery service worker is usually hourly and consists of many factors using complex formulas. But there are also fines, there is a cold calculation by the employer, which provides for shuttle activity for 14-16 hours a day, almost seven days a week. This is hard physical work, which not everyone can handle.

According to one of the recruiting services, at the beginning of 2024, the average salary of couriers in Russia reached a record 112.5 thousand rubles. Among the leaders in hiring are logistics companies and delivery service operators, as well as retail chains and marketplaces. In another service of a similar profile, the average salary offer in 2023 was determined to be 95 thousand rubles (an increase of 30% compared to 2022). They note that there are different forms of employment for couriers: part-time, shift or full-time. This also affects the level of earnings.

The speed of order fulfillment is also important. Let’s say, a delivery person on foot will not physically have time to deliver more than two or three orders per hour, while a car and bicycle can make 4-5 “walks”. Bicycle couriers earn 35% more than pedestrian couriers and have priority in receiving the most expensive orders. True, they do not have the opportunity to work all year round due to the abundance of snow and ice.

On average, today a courier delivers 20 orders daily. 89% of workers in this sector are men (the gender bias is especially noticeable in the grocery delivery segment, where heavy lifting is required). The average age is from 18 to 36 years, more than 75% of respondents have an education. As for nationality, more than half of couriers in the country as a whole (56%) have Russian passports. In cities with a population of over a million, the picture is fundamentally different: in Moscow and St. Petersburg, no more than 20% of delivery service employees are Russian. The rest are labor migrants. According to experts, this is due to lower incomes and, accordingly, a higher need for additional income for residents of regions, small and medium-sized cities.

“An explosive growth in demand for couriers occurred in the spring of 2020, when the covid pandemic began,” says Pavel Kudyukin, a member of the Council of the Confederation of Labor of Russia. “But when quarantine restrictions were lifted, demand not only did not fall, but continued to grow. True, questions arise regarding the economic and legal aspects of their activities. Not only are the working conditions of couriers quite difficult, but there are practically no employment contracts in this sector: employment is often informal, as employers save on social contributions. Accordingly, people have no guarantees regarding the length of the working day; they have neither paid vacations nor sick leave. Yes, they can independently determine their schedule, but if the office demands that they go “on line,” it’s difficult to refuse—there’s a high risk of being left without orders in the future.”

However, Kudyukin notes, for many this is the only chance to find employment: no special qualifications are required here, all you need is physical endurance, the ability to ride a bicycle or drive a car – and even then not always.

“I don’t really understand how there can be such a large shortage of couriers in the labor market – 300 thousand people,” Alexei Zubets, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, does not hide his skepticism. – It is unlikely that by the end of the year the online trade sector will double its current level. Moreover, there is evidence that many consumers are returning to the practice of offline purchases, this is especially evident in the food segment. Due to high shipping costs, shopping online today is often more expensive than shopping physically in a store. In addition, when delivered, products are sometimes not of the best quality.”

Couriers are an attribute mainly of megacities, cities with a population of over a million. In small and medium-sized cities, where income levels are lower, few people order online. There, people still go to shops and markets themselves (which do not have their own couriers), because it is cheaper, Zubets argues.

“There will not be a critical shortage of couriers, there is no need to be seriously afraid of this,” says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at Amarkets. – Demand for their services is growing due to the active development of the e-commerce market. The work involves part-time work and a very flexible schedule – which, coupled with increased wages, makes the profession an ideal part-time job for everyone: from students to retirees.”