Russia counts on Tajikistan’s accession to the EAEU

On June 6, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov completed a two-day working visit to Tajikistan. Lavrov met with President Emomali Rahmon and Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin. The parties paid special attention to the situation in the Taliban-controlled (recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia) Afghanistan, the Russian Foreign Ministry reports.

“We noted the coincidence of our approaches on most issues. This is the need to create an inclusive government in the country (with the inclusion of representatives of ethnic and religious minorities. – Vedomosti), countering the threats of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, illegal migration, drug trafficking, ”Lavrov said at a press conference with his Tajik counterpart. These issues were also discussed during Lavrov’s June 5 visit to the 201st Russian military base. Russian military personnel are deployed in the capital of the country, Dushanbe and the city of Bokhtar under an agreement with Russia until 2042.

Addressing the military personnel of the base, the minister stressed that for Russia Central Asia is “one of the fronts” that the West supports against it. “Difficult events are taking place in Afghanistan after the flight [антиталибской] “coalitions” [в сентябре 2021 г.], which for 20 years only left him in a state of increased threat of terrorism, sharply increased volumes of drug trafficking,” Lavrov said. Following the talks, Lavrov expressed gratitude to Dushanbe for creating conditions for the base to carry out tasks together with the Tajik military, and “in the interests of not only Tajikistan, but also all the CSTO allies.” The Russian minister assured that Moscow would continue to provide military-technical assistance to Dushanbe.

Tajikistan has the longest of the CIS countries border with Afghanistan – 1300 km long, and in the Gorno-Badakhshan region its protection is extremely difficult due to the mountainous terrain, recalls Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS. Lavrov’s visit highlights the importance for Russia to maintain close relations with Tajikistan at a time of increased Western pressure on the Central Asian countries to disrupt their ties with Moscow, the expert continues.

Lavrov said that Dushanbe and Moscow in the economic sphere “have several important agreements coming out.” At the end of 2022, the trade turnover between Russia and Tajikistan increased by 18% to $1.4 billion. A quarter of the country’s foreign trade turnover falls on Russia. At the same time, neighboring Kyrgyzstan, which, unlike Tajikistan, is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), increased trade with Russia by 30% to $3.5 billion. On the eve, Lavrov also expressed hope for Tajikistan to join the EAEU. “We very much hope that our Tajik hosts, who provide this hospitable territory, will soon determine the benefits for themselves from joining the Eurasian Economic Union,” the Russian minister said.

The accession of Tajikistan to the EAEU is prompted by the economic logic of integration in Central Asia, it is beneficial for the country’s economy to eliminate economic and trade imbalances, in terms of facilitating labor migration, etc., says Pritchin. But some elites in Tajikistan make super profits from the difference in prices for fuels and lubricants and other goods in the EAEU and their country, importing them from Kyrgyzstan, he says. “In addition, the Tajik authorities see in joining the EAEU a limitation of their influence on decision-making in the economy, the transfer of decisions to the supranational level and the need to adapt a number of norms with neighbors. So the decision here is on the side of Tajikistan,” the expert believes.

One of the important topics of negotiations for Tajikistan was labor migration to Russia. According to the FSB Border Guard Service, in 2022, Tajiks were in second place among foreign workers in Russia after citizens of Uzbekistan. Lavrov assured that Moscow regularly meets Dushanbe’s requests for an “amnesty” for illegal migrants. The last one, he said, took place a couple of years ago and 120,000 people were reinstated in their rights, despite administrative violations. The issue of labor migration to Russia is critically important for Tajikistan, up to a third of the country’s GDP (32%, according to the World Bank at the end of 2022 – Vedomosti) is formed by remittances from abroad, recalls Daria Chizhova, a researcher at the HSE CCEMI. Given that tax revenues to the Tajik budget have declined in 2023, the role of migration could grow even more, she said. Illegal migration is on the decline due to increasingly stringent Russian legislation, and labor mobility would be easier if Tajikistan joined the EAEU, Chizhova believes.