Rosstat announced a decrease in the level of poverty in Russia: but the poor are not getting smaller

Although they say that poverty is not a vice, no one wants to fall over its line. Fortunately, our country has adopted a program to combat poverty, even specific dates have been set for when we will defeat this social evil. And, judging by the reports of Rosstat, although we are through thorns, we are moving towards the intended goal.

The population with incomes below the subsistence level (14,026 rubles per month) in the first quarter of this year amounted to 19.6 million people. Against 20.9 million for the same period last year. That is, the poverty rate decreased to 13.5%, while in the first quarter of 2022 it was 14.3%

Recall that until 2021, the cost of living (PM) in Russia was calculated at the cost of the minimum living basket, which included a meager set of products, the cost of manufactured goods and services was added to its cost. Then, from 2021, in calculating the PM, statistics switched to the median income of the population, as more objective and accurate. By the way, today many experts believe that the calculation of the subsistence minimum for the consumer basket would give a higher value of the PM. But let’s not go into theoretical discussions – let’s trust Rosstat.

The report of the statistical department emphasizes that the army of the poor in Russia is traditionally the largest in the first quarter of the year. It is seasonal, like, for example, the rise in prices for potatoes and vegetables in the spring. But by the end of the year, the situation is changing radically, the poverty rate is steadily falling, as companies begin paying bonuses, progressives and 13 salaries.

What’s confusing about these numbers?

Compared to 2022, any economic indicator will look better. After all, the first quarter of last year was a real “nightmare on Elm Street” for Russians. Due to the “nuclear sanctions” imposed against Russia, the ruble collapsed, groceries in stores rose by 100-150% … In general, poverty in the country went through the roof, the government even decided to index pensions and other benefits unscheduled. But in absolute terms, it turns out that in the first quarter of this year, compared to a year earlier, 1.3 million people were able to get out of poverty.

This is according to Rosstat. How many poor people are there really in the country? After all, even those Russians who in the 4th quarter will leave the dangerous “red zone” (because large companies will begin paying bonuses and progressives), at the beginning of next year, they can automatically fall into it anyway. Here the situation is quite unsteady and this is confirmed by the statistics themselves. In recent years, the level of poverty in our country has, in one way or another, fluctuated around the value of 20 million people.

At the same time, some experts do not trust the invigorating figures of the Rosstat report. And there are reasons for this. Times are hard, everyone admits it – both politicians and economists. Now, if our economy grew, and with it salaries and social benefits, then there would be no doubts about the mass exit of citizens from poverty. But the economy is falling under the sanctions. According to Rosstat, Russia’s GDP fell by 1.9% in annual terms.

And our incomes are not growing. Rather, in the first quarter of 2023, the real disposable incomes of the population increased – but by 0.1%, and even then in annual terms. And at the end of 2022, they fell by the same amount. In general, real incomes are somewhere around zero. So where does overcoming the poverty line for more than a million Russians come from?

– The incomes of our fellow citizens are growing very unevenly, – says the trade unionist, former Deputy Minister of Labor of the Russian Federation Pavel Kudyukin. – The government makes serious investments mainly in low-income groups of the population, increasing their benefits and various payments. In an economically difficult situation, the state, so to speak, “bribes” a certain part of the citizens. Here, payments related to the conduct of a special military operation play a significant role. It is no secret that the majority of SVO participants come from low-income families.

– Is 13% of the poor for our country a lot or a little?

– Not very much, but another thing is that our living wage is very low, 14 thousand rubles a month. By and large, this is the level of physical survival. If this indicator were determined taking into account the real needs of people, the percentage of the poor in our country would be significantly higher.

– But the cost of living is constantly growing, it is indexed and it is calculated according to progressive median incomes …

– In most European countries, this indicator is also calculated by median income. Only there they are much higher than in Russia.