Robert Kennedy will be an independent candidate for US President

Politician and radio host Robert Kennedy Jr. announced on October 9 that he intends to participate in the US presidential election as an independent candidate. Before that, he planned to run, like his famous ancestors, from the Democratic Party. He recalled unsuccessful independent candidates from previous years and emphasized that “this time it will be different because an independent can win.”

To run, an independent candidate will have to register separately in each of the 50 states. Otherwise, his name will not appear on the ballot in states where registration is incomplete. The basic requirement in most states is to collect signatures, ranging from 1,000 in Utah to 219,000 in California, and pay a small fee.

Kennedy said on October 10 that both Democrats and Republicans were right to accuse him of trying to steal their votes. “I’m going to ruin them [выборы] for both [Трампа и Байдена]”, the candidate clarified. The Republican National Committee (which coordinates the party’s election strategy) called Kennedy “just another radical” and a “far-left Democrat.” Committee Chairman Rona McDaniel also recalled that in 2007 and 2016. Criticism from Democrats was limited to a statement from one party strategist that Kennedy did not pose a serious threat to Biden.

According to an Ipsos poll (results published October 6), the majority of voters – 56% – are not enthusiastic about the candidacies of Biden and Trump. At the same time, 48% have a positive view of Kennedy. Also, despite general confidence in vaccines, 50% of Americans said they would be inclined to support a candidate who, like Kennedy, questions their effectiveness. According to the poll, if Trump, Biden and Kennedy are presidential candidates, they will gain 33%, 31% and 14%, respectively.

Robert Kennedy Jr. is the son of presidential candidate and former US Attorney General Robert Kennedy (1961–1964) and nephew of former US President John F. Kennedy (1961–1963). According to Morning Consult, from April to July his rating among Democratic voters fluctuated between 10 and 12%, and by the end of August and early September it dropped to 9% versus Biden’s 76%.

In the history of American presidential elections, there have been 42 candidates who either ran as a third-party candidate or ran as an independent. This list also includes the 26th President of the United States, Theodore Roosevelt (1901–1909), who tried to be re-elected from the Progressive Party (instead of the Republican) in 1912. The example of businessman Ross Perot, who took part in the presidential election in 1992, is also known. Then he received almost 19% of the votes. Some American historians are convinced that Perot was one of the reasons for the defeat of then head of state George H. W. Bush (1989–1993) and, accordingly, the victory of Bill Clinton. So far, the only independent candidate to win the American presidential election is the first US President, George Washington.

Kennedy’s participation in the elections as an independent candidate primarily harms Biden, says Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for Biden’s candidacy, as well as general dissatisfaction with his policies, make Kennedy a more attractive alternative to some of the Democratic electorate. According to Vasiliev, Kennedy can also attract pro-Democratic independent voters. However, the expert believes that Republicans are unlikely to vote for him, since “for them Kennedy is an ordinary leftist.”

Kennedy, as an independent candidate, still has little chance of winning the presidential election, says political strategist and head of Dubravsky Consulting Pavel Dubravsky. He explained this not only by historical trends, but also by the peculiarities of Kennedy’s political rhetoric. “He wants to please two audiences with opposite values ​​at the same time. With today’s polarization [в США] this is problematic,” the expert said. Dubravsky also believes that it is not yet possible to accurately determine who will be harmed more by Kennedy’s candidacy. “He easily bites off the Biden and Trump electorates at the same time. It’s a rare case that a politician doesn’t harm one of the heavyweights of the two major parties. I assume that by October 2024 he will eat more from Biden, because he will win over the Democrats who are dissatisfied with his policies. It’s easier for them to vote for Kennedy than for Trump,” the expert concluded.