Road accidents feel unwell – Newspaper Kommersant No. 64 (7509) dated 04/13/2023

Accidents on the roads and the number of deaths in traffic accidents have increased by almost 3% since the beginning of the year, follows from the data of the State traffic inspectorate. A negative trend is observed in 45 regions of Russia, and in some regions the accident rate has increased by 1.5–2 times. Experts note the deterioration in the morale and psychological state of drivers: during crises, they become more nervous and absent-minded, as a result of which they often get into accidents. Another reason could be road congestion due to changes in logistics.

The State traffic inspectorate published a quarterly report on accident rate. It follows from this that the total number of accidents since the beginning of 2023 has increased by 2.6% compared to the same period in 2022. In the first three months, 24.2 thousand accidents occurred, in which 2.66 thousand people died (+2.8%) and 31.1 thousand were injured (+2%). According to the results of the past 2022, the accident rate decreased by 5%; in January 2023, it continued to decline, but February became a turning point – in one month the number of accidents increased by 12%.

The road accident rate increased in half of the regions of Russia – Kalmykia (+94%), North Ossetia-Alania (+53.2%), the Republic of Tyva (+47%), Buryatia (+41.3%), Ingushetia ( +38.7%. Among the federal districts in terms of the increase in road traffic accidents, the North Caucasian, Southern and Siberian ones are in the lead.

But against the backdrop of a general negative trend, a number of indicators are declining. For example, the number of accidents involving drunk drivers decreased by almost 27.8% (in total there were 1.23 thousand accidents of this type).

The number of accidents on intermunicipal and regional roads decreased by 2% (to 4.5 thousand). Kommersant sent a request to the Ministry of Internal Affairs with a request to comment on the statistics.

Mikhail Blinkin, scientific director of the Institute for Transport Economics and Transport Policy at the Higher School of Economics, says that over the past 30 years, the accident rate in the country has been steadily falling. However, there were two periods when growth was observed: during the economic crises of 1998 and 2008. “Now we have entered the third period,” he says. “People’s mood has a very strong effect on transport behavior. A relative of one died, another lost his job – as a result, the driver becomes less cautious, more nervous, attention on the road is dissipated. I think, as a result, the accident rate will increase throughout the year.” This hypothesis is also confirmed by the traffic police data: 88% of all accidents since the beginning of the year were due to the fault of drivers.

Mikhail Blinkin believes that another factor will be added a little later – the aging of the fleet due to a drop in sales of new cars, as well as a deterioration in the quality and frequency of car maintenance.

The growth of indicators can be caused by a lot of different reasons, says Vadim Melnikov, general director of the “Movement without danger” expert center. Among them is an increase in the number of accidents due to the spread of electric scooters and other means of individual mobility (SIM) in cities. The infrastructure in most regions for this type of transport is still not ready, says Mr. Melnikov. According to the traffic police, the number of accidents with SIM increased by 45% in 2022. To remove at least children from the risk zone, it is necessary to introduce the basic rules for using SIM into the school physical education course, says Vadim Melnikov.

Kommersant’s interlocutors, connected with the operation of the road network, say that the restructuring of supply chains and the closure of borders could lead to an increase in accidents.

There is much more traffic on the roads now, and there is very heavy traffic on weekends and holidays due to domestic tourism.

There is no real increase in the number of accidents, according to the Blue Buckets movement coordinator Petr Shkumatov, the “low base” effect just worked (when in February 2022 there were fewer accidents than usual, against which February 2023 showed an increase). At the beginning of last year, traffic was restricted in the territories bordering with Ukraine in connection with preparations for a special military operation, he claims, as a result of which car traffic in these regions decreased. “Accident rate is always a derivative of traffic – if it falls, then the number of accidents follows them,” explains Mr. Shkumatov. Some systemic conclusions can be drawn only for the next few months, the expert believes.

Ivan Buranov