Reuters: Ministry of Finance may allocate 80 billion rubles of foreign currency to the Central Bank for sale under the budget rule
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The Ministry of Finance of Russia for the period from February 7 to March 6 may allocate to the Central Bank currency in the equivalent of 80 billion rubles. ($1.14 billion) to be sold domestically to offset budget shortfalls in oil and gas revenues, according to a consensus forecast based on a survey of six market analysts conducted by Reuters. According to the agency, the Ministry of Finance is to announce new foreign exchange interventions tomorrow, February 3.
The range of estimates of analysts polled by Reuters ranged from zero to 205 billion rubles.
By evaluation Ministry of Finance, in early January, the budget received less than 54.4 billion rubles. oil and gas revenues. The department allocated the corresponding amount in Chinese yuan to the Bank of Russia for sale for the period from January 13 to February 6. Currently, the Central Bank sells foreign currency for 3.2 billion rubles daily. If the agency’s forecast comes true, the Central Bank will start selling foreign currency for 4.4 billion rubles for each exchange session.
In November, Vladimir Putin softened budget rule for the next three years and increased taxes for oil and gas companies. After a ten-month pause, the Ministry of Finance from January 13 resumed interventions in the foreign exchange market according to the budget rule revived in a new form – the currency was not bought, but sold. According to the rule, if the actual oil and gas revenues exceed the calculated ones, the Central Bank buys the currency of friendly countries and sends it to reserves, if on the contrary, it sells the currency from the National Welfare Fund and receives rubles.
According to the Ministry of Finance, in January the cost of Urals was $49.48 per barrel, while the budgeted oil price was $70 per barrel. By evaluation According to Bloomberg and Citigroup analysts, if Urals oil costs $25–35 per barrel, the Central Bank’s reserves in yuan will be exhausted as early as 2023.
On the situation in the foreign exchange market – in the material “The ceiling is pressing on the ruble”.
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