Real wages increased by 6.9% in the first half of the year

The average salary from January to June 2023 in real terms (adjusted for inflation) increased by 6.9% compared to the same period last year, follows from Rosstat data. Compared to the first 5 months, the growth rate accelerated. According to the results of January-May, real wages increased by 6%.

In nominal terms, there is also a significant increase. In June, the average monthly accrued wages amounted to 76,604 rubles, which is 14.1% higher than in the previous year. The indicator also increased in relation to the previous month. Nominal wages increased by 5.2% compared to May.

The highest wage rates were traditionally observed among employees working in the field of oil and natural gas production (169,473 rubles), financing and insurance (156,581 rubles), and tobacco production (153,374 rubles). The least paid are postal workers and couriers (40,583 rubles), furniture manufacturers (42,777 rubles), as well as those employed in the hotel business and catering (43,483 rubles).

The average pension for July (compared to salary data, Rosstat publishes estimates for this indicator of household income more quickly) amounted to 19,476 rubles, which is 5.9% more than a year earlier. The unemployment rate in July this year again updated the record and amounted to 3% – this is the lowest figure on record since 1991. The previous low (3.1%) was recorded a month earlier.

In the first half of 2023, the stratification of society in terms of the level of wealth increased, follows from the data of Rosstat. The agency evaluates the indicator according to the so-called quantiles: income groups (there are five in total). 5.5% was concentrated in the hands of the poorest part, while the richest received 46.6%. If we take the same period last year, the figures were 5.6% and 46%, respectively. A separate value – the Gini coefficient – shows the income concentration index. The value can vary from 0 to 1, and the closer it is to the upper threshold, the more income is concentrated in the hands of certain groups. During the year, the indicator increased from 0.400 to 0.405. “In the first half of 2023, according to preliminary data, the share of 10% of the wealthiest population accounted for 29.8% of total cash income (in the first half of 2022 – 29.4%), and the share of 10% of the poorest population – 2.0% (2.1%),” Rosstat also added.

The Statistical Office also distributes the population according to the size of average per capita cash income. Thus, the majority of Russians (26.7%) can count on an amount from 27,000 to 45,000 rubles per month. Up to 7,000 rubles. 1.7% of citizens receive more than 100,000 rubles. – 7.6%.

The growth of wages is associated with a shortage of personnel, I am sure the professor of the department of state and municipal finance of the Russian University of Economics. G. V. Plekhanova Yulia Finogenova. It arose as a result of the outflow of specialists abroad, the growth of certain industries due to the development of import substitution and demographic problems. The average level of salaries at the same time “does not reflect the real situation on the market,” she said. It occurs mainly at the expense of certain industries – such as IT, construction and real estate, logistics, transport, retail, where companies are forced to “buy out” specialists. “It can be concluded that the acute phase of the shortage of personnel will be overcome in a few years, as the Russian economy transitions to new working conditions,” the expert believes. At the same time, macroeconomic stabilization is possible only if wage growth is accompanied by positive dynamics of labor productivity and digitalization, she specified. Otherwise, an excess of money supply can provoke a further increase in inflation.

“The historically low unemployment rate of about 3% should be expected at least until the end of this year,” said economist Artem Lyukshin. Among the key reasons for such a low level of unemployment, he singled out the demographic hole of the 1990s, the growth in the number of self-employed people, and the increase in the number of citizens with part-time employment. “The reduction in labor productivity also played a role in the decline in employment. The consequences of the pandemic and the conduct of a special military operation should not be discounted,” he added.

The economist, author of the Solid Numbers Telegram channel, Rodion Latypov, does not expect a decrease in tension in the labor market. “Unemployment is already below levels that can be considered non-inflationary and will continue to decline as the economy’s labor needs continue to rise,” he explained. The expert also noted that the source of new workers can be not only a decrease in the number of unemployed, but also an increase in the labor force from among those who were not part of it before – these are not only students and pensioners. The increase in salaries, in his opinion, will make it relatively more attractive for them to enter the labor market.

If we talk about incomes by population groups, it is important to remember that they include not only salaries, but also, for example, income from property, Latypov emphasized. “In the latter category, it is the upper quintiles of the population that could be the big beneficiaries of higher deposit rates and stock market growth,” he said.