real incomes of the population in 2023 increased by 5.4%
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According to Rosstat, real disposable income of the population in 2023 increased by 5.4%, amounting to 98.6% of the 2013 level. According to analysts, fueled primarily by an increase in wages, the growth of this indicator at the end of last year greatly accelerated (taking into account seasonality): from minus 0.8% in the third quarter to plus 4.3% in the fourth – according to Raiffeisenbank, and from plus 0 .4% to plus 3.1% – according to calculations by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMACF).
In December 2023, following a sharp increase in the real interest rate, the savings rate in deposits increased sharply. At the same time, the growth of lending to individuals slowed down to an insignificant 0.2% in nominal terms. As a result, the consumption rate fell to one of the lowest historical values (80.7% seasonally excluded – versus 84.7% in the third quarter, according to the Center for International Relations).
Net consumer lending (the difference between the issuance of loans and the increase in individual deposits) at the end of the year, according to Raiffeisenbank, began to make a negative contribution to changes in consumption, but high income growth did not allow it to go negative (see chart).
After cooling at the end of 2023, at the beginning of 2024, consumer demand, according to indirect indicators (Sbera and Romir), shows atypically rapid growth (see Kommersant on January 31). According to weekly data from Sberindex, consumer activity increased even more in February. In the week ending February 4, nominal expenses on Sber cards were 17.9% higher, and as of February 11 they were 16.5% higher than a year earlier. This is noticeably (2.5–3 percentage points) higher than in December. Romir data records an even more noticeable jump in consumption. From February 5 to February 11, the volume of nominal spending on consumer goods in the average family was 31.4% (21.6% in the previous week) higher than a year ago.
“We feel that the effect of the jump in income at the end of the year outweighed the effect of the increase in savings. They save more, but also spend more. The consumer boom is strong. And this makes us look with caution at the prospects for slowing inflation,” analysts of the MMI Telegram channel believe.
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