Leading Russian banks, after a short pause, finally responded to the decision of the Central Bank, which raised the key rate to 13% on September 15. A wave of rate increases swept through the deposit market. It is obvious that the big players will be followed by their competitors. MK was looking into how long the banquet for depositors would last and how best to form a deposit portfolio.
According to the Financial Services platform, by September 18, in the top 10 banks, the average maximum rate on deposits for three months was 10.47%, for six months - 10.22%, for one year - 9.51%. After the regulator raised the key rate by 100 percentage points, many depositors expected a similar prompt step from retail banks. However, they unexpectedly took a pause to comprehend the situation. I'm glad it didn't last long.
From September 25, Sber increased the yield on popular deposits for 3 and 6 months. The rate increased by 0.3 percentage points, the bank's press service reported yesterday. At the end of last week by 0.5 p.p. increased the base rate for market programs of VTB and Sovcombank. Rosbank and MKB also improved their conditions. Rosselkhozbank was the most generous, increasing the yield on deposits from 6 to 12 months by 1–1.5 percentage points.
As Freedom Finance Global leading analyst Natalya Milchakova explained to MK, the market reacted weakly, most likely because back in August, after the Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate to a double-digit figure of 12% per annum, a number of large banks raised deposit rates to double-digit figures , 10–11% per annum. Several large players attracted deposits at a rate of 13% per annum, but only with a placement period of more than 1 year.
“The recent increase in the key rate of the Central Bank increases the attractiveness of short-term deposits for ordinary citizens, the rates on which are growing especially actively,” added Maxim Timoshenko, director of the department of operations in financial markets of Russian Standard Bank.
However, it is not worth buying into a high deposit rate. There are several pitfalls. As Milchakova advises, before you put money on deposit at a temptingly high interest rate, you must first carefully study the terms of the deposit. Some banks offer high interest rates (10–13% per annum) only under certain conditions: a very long term, from 1 year, or, conversely, a short term, no more than 3 months. In addition, there are often restrictions on profitable products: you need to deposit at least 100 thousand rubles, and often more. Of course, the shorter the deposit period, the lower the risks, but, on the other hand, with a longer period of keeping funds on deposit, you can earn more.
It is also important to clarify in advance how often interest is calculated. If you are going to put money on a deposit for a period of, for example, 1 year, then the most profitable would be a deposit where interest is accrued not once a year at the time the deposit expires, but monthly or quarterly. And it’s even better if the accumulated interest can be capitalized by choice, i.e. leave it on the deposit, thereby increasing its amount, or withdraw it.
“The choice of deposit term largely depends on plans for making large purchases,” said Natalya Vashchelyuk, chief analyst at Sovcombank. — If there are no such plans, then you can diversify deposits by maturity: place most of the funds in short-term deposits (for 3 months), some in the longest possible deposits (for 3 years). Short deposits will probably be able to be placed at the same or higher interest rates later.”
When choosing a bank, it is better to focus on large credit institutions whose deposits are insured by the DIA, recommends Vashchelyuk. In her opinion, it is better not to place funds in one bank whose amount exceeds the insured limit (RUB 1.4 million).
Financial analyst Nadezhda Belova advises not to rush to sign an agreement with a bank: “Choose free time to calmly take a walk through financial marketplaces and Internet services that publish comparative analytics on ruble deposits. These sites will help you choose the right product on favorable terms. The minimum task is to find an option that allows you to “beat” official inflation in terms of profitability.”
In addition, Belova believes, we should not forget about savings accounts, which are also insured by the DIA for up to 1.4 million rubles, but unlike a classic deposit, they can be closed at any time without loss of income. They are especially suitable for beginners who use a savings account as a piggy bank to buy a used car, furniture or an expensive gadget. As a rule, banks lure new clients by advising them to open a savings account with an increased rate. But we must keep in mind that luxury conditions can only be valid for 2-3 months. The bank can then unilaterally and often without warning lower the interest rate. “Therefore, it is better to clarify in advance the conditions for changing the rate and the mechanism for calculating interest (on the minimum account balance during the month, on a daily basis),” said the financial analyst.
Deposits with a double-digit rate will be very attractive to investors because... Consumer price inflation in 2023, according to the forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, will not exceed 7%, and according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, it will not exceed 7.5%, Milchakova is sure. According to her assessment, at the end of this year, banks’ deposit rates will not rise above 13% per annum, since the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is unlikely to further increase the key rate so sharply, and there is a possibility that the September increase was the last this year.
Natalya Vashchelyuk, on the contrary, expects that the Bank of Russia will continue to raise the key rate at upcoming meetings. As a result, in November and December, interest rates on deposits, in her opinion, may increase by 1–2 percentage points. According to Nadezhda Belova’s forecast, ruble deposits will slowly rise in price until the end of this year: rates on short-term deposits (3–6 months) will increase the most—by 0.5–1 percentage points. up to the 10–13% range.