Rates on ruble deposits began to grow: how to properly manage money

At the end of spring, good mood returned to depositors: after a long pause, rates on ruble and foreign currency products went up again. How long will the deposit “banquet” last and how to properly manage the savings, MK found out.

Since the beginning of this year, despondency reigned among the owners of deposits – their savings were slowly “eaten away” by inflation. However, at the end of spring the situation changed. According to the Central Bank, following the results of last May, the average maximum rate on deposits of the top 10 Russian banks rose to 7.75% per annum. Rates on deposits for up to 3 months amounted to 5.64%, for a period of 3-6 months – 6.75%, for a period of 6-12 months – 6.61%, for a period of more than a year – up to 8.37%.

Considering that official inflation in the Russian Federation in April was only 2.3%, and in May 2.51%, we can state that ruble deposits have again begun to bring real income. Recall that until the end of 2023, the regulator expects a gradual increase in inflation in the region of 4.5–6.5%.

It is known that the main indicator for the deposit market is the key rate of the Central Bank. Recently, the Bank of Russia once again left it at the level of 7.5%. As long as there are no clouds on the horizon. Budgetary policy is returning to normal, and a symbolic surplus of the federal budget was recorded during the last month of spring. The Russian economy is gradually adapting to Western sanctions.

– The Russians retain a predominantly cumulative behavior model, people want to have a financial airbag. Now is a favorable time for opening deposits: rates are at their peak level over the past six months (up to 10% per annum for long-term deposits), – said Gennady Chausov, head of the liabilities and commission products service of Post Bank. — Therefore, in the presence of savings, we recommend not to postpone their placement in anticipation of a further increase in deposit rates.

According to Dmitry Khmelev, head of the AC Banki.ru, at the end of spring, according to the statistics of the search parameters for deposits through the marketplace services, deposits with the possibility of monthly interest payments, whose share is 29%, retained the first place in terms of interest. The second and third places continue to be occupied by deposits with the possibility of replenishment and without floating rates with shares of 20% and 19%, respectively.

According to the chief analyst of Sovcombank Natalya Vashchelyuk, recently the main changes have taken place in the segment of deposits denominated in the currencies of “friendly” countries. For example, the number of banks offering deposits in UAE dirhams has noticeably increased. “The dirham is pegged to the dollar, so from the point of view of the dynamics of the exchange rate, it can be considered a “non-toxic” replacement for the dollar. Interest rates on deposits in dirhams are lower than on ruble instruments, and amount to 1–2%,” the expert explained. She said interest rates on Chinese yuan deposits rose last spring as banks sought to balance their open foreign exchange position. As a result, the interest rate on RMB deposits can exceed 3.5%.

At the end of May, some credit institutions again began to attract deposits in “unfriendly” currencies. Rosselkhozbank and Kamkombank raised rates on deposits in dollars and euros. Today, if you search, you can open a deposit in dollars at 5%! If you bring cash to the cashier.

Maxim Timoshenko, Director of Financial Market Operations at Russian Standard Bank, believes that deposit rates are unlikely to change much this summer, since the Central Bank is likely to leave the key rate unchanged at the current level until at least autumn. “In the baseline scenario, the Central Bank expects the target inflation to reach levels of 4% by 2025, which may indicate that the current deposit rates look quite attractive and can beat inflation in the long term, even taking into account the tax,” Tymoshenko said.

Banks are still interested in raising funds for the long term, so interest rates on long-term deposits are likely to remain at the current level, Vashchelyuk is sure. But rates on shorter deposits, according to her, may rise.

According to Dmitry Khmelev, during the second half of 2023, the Central Bank will continue to cautiously raise the key rate by 25-100 bp. n. (up to 7.75–8.5%). At the same time, in the face of a growing deficit and budget spending, one should not expect an auction of generosity. “With the current level of the average maximum deposit rate of about 8%, the ceiling for its further growth is limited to single-digit levels. Depositors should focus on monitoring periodic offers of banks with special conditions for deposits, ”the analyst emphasized.

When choosing a bank, Natalya Vashchelyuk advises paying attention to whether it is a member of the DIA and whether the deposits are insured. In general, it is better to give preference to large and systemically important banks. Despite the fact that large players are usually stable, it is better not to place funds in the amount of more than 1.4 million rubles in one credit institution. When choosing a bank and a product, you should pay attention to promotional offers, including those for new customers. It is necessary to diversify deposits by banks, currency and terms.

For most deposits, if they are closed early, the minimum interest (0.1%) is charged on the balance. “Therefore, if you are planning to make a large purchase, it makes no sense to open a long-term deposit: if you close it early, interest will be lost (under standard deposit conditions). It is better to choose a savings account or a short-term deposit, even if the interest rate is lower,” experts advise.

In the coming months, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will certainly raise the key rate. “Under the current conditions, it makes sense to place most of the ruble savings on a savings account (to look for promotional offers from banks to attract new customers) or on a deposit for up to 4 months. The remaining funds are on deposits for longer periods, depending on plans for large purchases, ”concluded Vashchelyuk.

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 29052 dated June 20, 2023

Newspaper headline:
There has been a reversal in the deposit market