Race without a leader – Newspaper Kommersant No. 5 (7450) dated 01/13/2023

In Melbourne, the draw for the Australian Open, which begins next Monday. In the absence of the leader of the world classification Spaniard Carlos Alcaras, who will not be able to compete there due to a leg injury, the main favorite of the first Grand Slam tournament of the season is its nine-time winner Serbian Novak Djokovic, who, despite a slight ailment, has a real chance of winning his 22- th title at the Grand Slam tournaments, having caught up with Rafael Nadal in this indicator, and return to first place in the ranking. The list of contenders for the victory also includes Daniil Medvedev, who reached the final twice in a row in Melbourne. True, the Russian does not claim to be the first racket of the world now.

One of the features of the current Australian Open became known long before the draw began. It consists in the fact that the leader of the world ranking will not be able to perform at this tournament for the second time in a row. A year ago, Novak Djokovic, having arrived in Melbourne unvaccinated against the coronavirus, was deported from there by court order. Now Carlos Alcaras is out of the game, having been injured at his home in Spain last week in training with 15-year-old sparring partner American Darwin Blanche. Having caught up with a shortened ball, the best tennis player in the world struck almost from a split and paid for his excessive diligence by stretching one of the muscles of the back of his right thigh. As a result, without the participation of Alcaraz, who in November, due to problems with the abdominal press, was unable to perform in Turin at the Nitto ATP Finals, an important tournament will be held for the second consecutive time.

True, it is not so easy to remove the Spaniard from the first place in the ranking. Now Alcaraz has 6820 points, and after the Australian Open, where he dropped out in the 1/8 finals last year, this amount will decrease quite a bit, to 6730 points. The closest pursuer of Alcaraz, his compatriot Rafael Nadal, has 5720 points, but he won in Melbourne a year ago and cannot count on an increase now. Theoretically, three are able to bypass Alcaraz – Norwegian Kasper Ruud (5720 points), last year’s semi-finalist Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas (5715) and Novak Djokovic (5070). To complete this task, Ruud can limit himself to reaching the final, while the Greek and Serb only need a victory. At the same time, Tsitsipas is in the upper half of the bracket and hypothetically goes to Nadal in the semi-finals, while Ruud and Djokovic are in the bottom.

Thinking so far, however, does not make any sense. Indeed, for the same Nadal, the draw was extremely unsuccessful. His first opponent was young Briton Jack Draper, who on Thursday beat Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals of the tournament in Adelaide. He ranks 40th in the rankings and thus was one of the strongest non-seeded players. The first half of last year, Draper has not yet participated in major tournaments and is preparing for his debut at the Australian Open. But given that Nadal suffered two defeats in the recent United Cup tag team tournament, his start in Melbourne seems very difficult.

The same can be said about the first racket of Russia Andrey Rublev, who last Monday beat Daniil Medvedev in the world classification. The six-time Grand Slam quarterfinalist went to the 2020 US Open champion Dominik Thiem of Austria, who recovered from a serious wrist injury, was very noticeable at the end of last season and therefore received a wild card from the organizers. Rublev will face a very serious test for compliance with the status of a top ten player. In the meantime, he hasn’t won a match this year, having suffered two defeats at warm-up tournaments in Adelaide. Although Tim also did not show himself, losing one meeting there in qualifying.

Rublev, however, according to bookmakers, is not yet even among the top ten contenders for victory in the Australian Open. Novak Djokovic tops this list, despite the ailment in his left leg, followed by Daniil Medvedev, who loves to play in Australia and has reached the finals there for the last two years. Even now, it is extremely important for Medvedev to perform in Melbourne as best as possible, because in the event of an early defeat, he risks being outside the top ten. For a player who until relatively recently was the first racket of the world, this scenario will be very painful, although the Russian has every chance to prevent it. Having received a rather low seventh seed, he got into the top of the bracket and theoretically goes to Nadal in the quarterfinals. But first he will meet with the American Marcos Giron, whom he has already beaten once, and without much difficulty.

At the women’s Australian Open, the pre-start balance of power looks about the same as it was at last year’s Grand Slam tournaments, starting with Roland Garros. There is one clear favorite – the first racket of the world Pole Iga Swiatek, and there is a group of tennis players who can really give her a big problem. Due to the large number of surprises that women’s tennis has been known for lately, it is still difficult to name the main rival of Šwiętek in the fight for the title. Although now, perhaps, Belarusian Arina Sobolenko can be considered as such, who took the title in Adelaide in spectacular style last week. There is hope to see Daria Kasatkina and Veronika Kudermetova at the decisive stages of the tournament – two Russian tennis players from the top ten. In any case, both of them this week show confident tennis in Adelaide, where they reached the semi-finals. Kasatkina beat the famous Czech Petra Kvitova in two sets on Thursday, and Veronika Kudermetova broke the resistance of the American Danielle Collins in three sets, managing to save five match points. In total, 14 Russians will compete in the main draw of the Australian Open. This became possible after three of them – Diana Schneider, Oksana Selekhmeteva and Polina Kudermetova, Veronika’s younger sister, qualified.

Evgeny Fedyakov