Quarantine rally – Newspaper Kommersant No. 224 (7425) dated 02.12.2022

Protests involving large countries usually do not bode well for business, only volatility and losses, if not mayhem. China is no exception here, suffice it to recall the thousands of demonstrations of 2019-2020 in Hong Kong, which greatly reduced the capitalization of the stock market both in the city itself and in mainland China. But the anti-COVID protests that swept China in late November may be a rare exception. There is a chance that the country’s authorities will still begin to unscrew the nuts of the anti-virus dictatorship.

The demonstrations have become one of the most serious challenges for the ruling Communist Party since the 1989 protests, which were suppressed with the participation of the army. Thousands of public demonstrations take place in China every year, but so far, residents of different regions of the country have protested mainly because of problems on the ground. Despite the harshness of the Chinese regime, Chinese citizens, when they gather in large crowds, can protest very aggressively: smash the buildings of local governments, fight with the police, turn over and burn cars. Nevertheless, the right to them is always in the hands of the party and the police, and the armed people’s police (analogous to the National Guard), and the army.

That is why the current protests are out of the ordinary. Firstly, they have a single reason – the sickened policy of “zero tolerance” for covid, which has been depriving citizens of a normal life for the third year, leading to a reduction in income, and in the city of Urumqi led to a tragedy when people were burned alive and no one could help because of the prohibitions to leave their homes. Secondly, the demonstrations swept many of China’s million-plus cities, spreading to the largest metropolitan areas, including Beijing and Shanghai. Finally, in some cases, protesters have moved from criticizing covid policies to anti-government slogans.

After a week, the authorities seem to have the situation under control. But the authorities seem to have realized for the first time that the continuation of the “zero tolerance” policy could lead to large-scale unrest in the future, even if the current outburst of protest can be suppressed. Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, who oversees the fight against the virus, has already stated that the policy on covid will soon change, and the expression “zero tolerance” has never been heard.

For Russian business and even citizens, this is good news. Firstly, tough anti-COVID measures put pressure on China’s economic growth, reducing the consumption of raw materials. Secondly, if covid restrictions are lifted, cargo flows across the Russian-Chinese border will flow faster, providing industry with components and citizens with goods. The latter may be especially important on the eve of the New Year holidays and given the sharp limitation of the sources of gifts available to Russians.