Experts reported the triggering of almost all indicators of the global recession

Three out of four leading indicators signal the risks of a global recession in late 2022 – early 2023, according to an analytical commentary by the ACRA rating agency. Experts consider a global recession to be a decline in real annual GDP per capita, combined with a decline in other indicators of economic activity (industrial production, employment, energy consumption, etc.). According to this definition, there have been five episodes of global recession over the past 70 years: 1974-1975, 1981-1982, 1990-1991, 2008-2009, two quarters of 2020, estimated at ACRA. The remaining periods of decline in global GDP were not accompanied by a decline in other macro indicators, so they cannot be called a recession.

According to this definition, there have been five episodes of global recession over the past 70 years: 1974-1975, 1981-1982, 1990-1991, 2008-2009, two quarters of 2020, estimated at ACRA. The remaining periods of decline in global GDP were not accompanied by a decline in other macro indicators, so they cannot be called a recession.

The first indicator signaling the onset of an imminent crisis is a deterioration in global GDP growth forecasts of at least 1 percentage point (pp) a year before the events, the review says. A change in forecasts of this magnitude is observed now, experts point out. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 to 2.7%, in July the IMF predicted growth by 2.9%, in January – by 3.8%. In June, the World Bank downgraded its forecast for global GDP growth in 2022 to 2.9% from 4.1% expected in January, and to 3% instead of 3.2% in 2023. The international rating agency Fitch in September lowered its forecast for global GDP growth for 2023 to 1.7% from 2.7% expected in June.