Putin to visit Belarus for the first time in three years

On December 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Minsk for the first time since 2019, where he will meet with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko. The agenda will include “the whole palette of our bilateral relations, trade and economic cooperation, these are integration issues,” said the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov: “And of course, the conversation on regional and international problems, including those that are around our countries in abundance flourishes.”

On the same day, December 16, Lukashenko said that problems arose during the formation of a single gas market within the Union State of Belarus and Russia, which is one of the integration programs approved in November 2021, in particular, the deadlines for the implementation of measures were disrupted. “Concrete measures and deadlines are envisaged, which, unfortunately, in my opinion, have not been implemented. They are just torn off. Who is responsible for this and how will we correct the situation?” Lukashenka said. He noted that the competitiveness of the country’s economy depends on energy prices, in this regard, pricing issues in the framework of the implementation of union programs are in the first place. According to Lukashenka, economic issues will be the main topic of the meeting with Putin.

It is impossible to deny both the symbolic and political significance of Putin’s first trip to Belarus in three years: this is a rare type of visit when the Russian president comes to friends and obvious allies, and even a trip to Kazakhstan should not be put side by side, notes the head of the Center for Belarusian Studies of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences Nikolay Mezhevich. The fact that the meeting takes place on Belarusian territory after a series of Lukashenka’s visits to Moscow, Sochi and St. leadership, says Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a researcher at IMEMO RAS. Cooperation is built on equal terms, at least in a symbolic sense, the expert notes.

According to Mezhevich, Putin’s visit is a demonstration of the special relationship between Minsk and Moscow, and within its framework, not only the integration schedule in the gas sector, which Lukashenka complained about and demanded to find responsible ones, will be discussed, but also, obviously, issues of agrarian, industrial, energy and other economic integration, exchange rates. Obviously, a visit of this level was required to speed up the integration processes, the expert believes, adding that Lukashenka will certainly take advantage of Putin’s visit to name the problem sectors and those responsible, in his opinion, in the Russian leadership.

The fact that Lukashenka mentioned specifically the failure to form a single gas market indicates his concern about the task of equalizing fuel prices in the two countries (according to agreements with Gazprom, in 2022, 1000 cubic meters of gas for Belarus costs $128.52), Mezhevich says. But if gas prices are equalized, then the entire pricing system should be equalized, and this requires more global measures, building vertical holdings that would make it possible to level differences in gas prices, the expert believes. Lukashenka’s demand to speed up the formation of a single gas market and equalize gas prices is logical, given that Russia and Belarus have a common customs space, Officers-Belsky notes.

During the visit, issues of regional security and the joint military group deployed in October will also be discussed, Mezhevich said. But this does not mean that the troops in Belarus are necessarily used for military operations, the expert says. Rather, the group will continue to carry out defense tasks, Mezhevich believes.

Security issues on the agenda of Putin’s visit to Minsk will be discussed, but they do not have a priority, Officers-Belsky agrees. Another thing is that international topics will be touched upon, especially in the context of not only bilateral relations, but also Minsk’s membership in international organizations, in particular the CIS, the CSTO and the EAEU, as well as the prospects for the country’s membership in the SCO. On December 14, Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko called for speeding up Belarus’ entry into the SCO.