Putin ignored the G20: the mystery of the president’s absence in India

GDP is now simply nothing to talk about with the majority of participants at the main summit of the planet

Vladimir Putin did not go to the BRICS summit in South Africa. Putin will not go to the G20 summit in India. The external outline of events is very similar, but their internal political mechanics are completely different.

The Russian President did not appear in South Africa due to the internal political weakness of the host country. The head of this state, Cyril Ramaphosa, does not have enough weight – neither within his country, nor even beyond its borders – to challenge the West by hosting Putin. Indian Prime Minister Modi’s political weight is fine. But while Putin has something to talk about with his colleagues in the BRICS leaders’ club, the same cannot be said about the majority of participants at the G20 summit. In the current geopolitical conditions, the trip of the GDP is completely devoid of practical meaning.

When EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in the first half of last year that the Ukrainian conflict would be resolved on the battlefield, this was initially perceived in Russia as a sign of cynicism. Life has made its own adjustments to this assessment.

Viewed from the fall of 2023, Borrell is perceived not as a cynic (correction: not only as a cynic), but as an absolute realist.

Even in ancient times, the great orator Marcus Tullius Cicero remarked: “When the guns speak, the muses are silent.” I will complement Cicero: when “the guns speak,” there is absolutely nothing to say to each other and to the leaders of the opposing powers.

On the one hand, the time for their meaningful dialogue has already passed (since hostilities began, this dialogue can safely be considered a failure), but on the other hand, it has not yet arrived. And it will come only when the outcome of the armed conflict becomes obvious. Then there will be a subject for conversation – post-conflict resolution.

And what can Putin now say to the West, and the West to Putin – “your plans will fail”? But to exchange such remarks it is not at all necessary to meet in person.

Of course, unlike the G8, the G20 is not a purely Western club. The G20 includes countries such as Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India and China and so on. But the bulk of the summit participants still represent Western countries. If so, then see the previous paragraph.

As for the non-Western participants of the summit, the GDP may well communicate with them (and is actively communicating) in a bilateral format. This is much more comfortable and practical than going to an event, some of the participants of which will only be happy to put you in an uncomfortable position. Why give them such pleasure?

Of course, from the point of view of the host of the summit, India, the situation looks somewhat different. The greater the number of participants, the more successful the event is considered. The more successful a global event such as the G20 summit is considered, the higher the prestige of the host country. And here it turns out: China sent the Prime Minister instead of the Supreme Leader, and Russia sent the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

But Russian foreign policy cannot be built on the desire to please someone (even India). New Delhi’s line towards Russia is based on naked pragmatism. The conflict between Russia and the West is a chance for India to “skim the cream” (or, to be more practical, cheap oil) by playing on the contradictions of the warring parties and increase its foreign policy capitalization as an independent and influential global player.

India openly – sometimes even shamelessly – uses this chance. Russia has every right (what is it “has the right”! It is obliged!) to treat New Delhi with the same pragmatism.

There is, however, one more “big but”. Officially, Moscow will be represented at the summit in India only by Sergei Lavrov. However, in fact, one more person will speak on behalf of Russia with the Western participants of the G20 – Turkish President Erdogan.

Ankara says so directly: Erdogan will tell his NATO colleagues about the results of his recent negotiations with the GDP in Sochi. For the leader of Turkey, who loves to be at the epicenter of events and constantly push up the prestige and influence of his state, this is a real “finest hour.” But what can you do: such times are the “finest hours”!

And in general: although Putin will be physically absent from New Delhi, world leaders will still feel his invisible presence in their deliberation room. In this sense, Russia will still dominate the G20 summit. And all the other “meanings” will definitely become clear later. I’m not sure, however, that this will happen before the next G20 summit in Brazil. But this is already a topic for conversation next year.