Putin and Raisi discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh problem

Russian President Vladimir Putin held telephone conversations with his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi on September 26. The dialogue took place at the initiative of the Iranian side; the heads of state discussed the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh, from where the mass evacuation of the local Armenian population continues with the help of Russian peacekeepers, the press service of the Russian presidential administration reports.

In the conversation, Putin told Raisi about the work of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, including providing humanitarian assistance to civilians. In addition, the heads of state expressed mutual interest in intensifying the work of the “3+3” consultative regional platform (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia plus Russia, Iran and Turkey). Previously, Iran has repeatedly expressed concern about the situation in Karabakh and during the latest escalation called for a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution involving all interested countries in the region in the appropriate format.

According to the Armenian government, by 07.00 Moscow time on September 26, 13,550 people had left Karabakh (out of a population of 120,000, according to Karabakh authorities). At the same time, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) reported the formation of a multi-kilometer traffic jam on the road from Stepanakert (Azerbaijani name – Khankendi) to the Armenian city of Kornidzor. Late in the evening of September 25, an explosion occurred at a gas station near Stepanakert, which killed 20 people and injured almost 300, the NKR Ministry of Health reports.

Since the end of the “anti-terrorist operation” on September 19–20, the Azerbaijani military has gradually established control over settlements in the RMC’s area of ​​responsibility in Nagorno-Karabakh. On September 26, Azerbaijani television channels distributed a video of the installation of the national flag on the city administration building in Agder (Armenian name – Mardakert). On the same day, Azerbaijanis dismantled the monument to the Armenian national hero during the First Karabakh War, Monte Melkonyan, in Khojavend (Martuni).

The day before, in Nakhichevan (the western exclave of Azerbaijan, surrounded by the territories of Armenia, Turkey and Iran), the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey Ilham Aliyev and Recep Erdogan signed a protocol of intent to build a railway from Nakhichevan to the Turkish city of Kars. This highway will presumably become a continuation of the so-called Zangezur corridor, which will connect the western regions of Azerbaijan with its exclave and further connect with Turkey through the Armenian region of Syunik, which separates Azerbaijani territory. Following the meeting, Erdogan, in an interview with Turkish journalists on September 26, did not rule out that Iran could also join the infrastructure projects. For their part, the Armenian authorities consistently oppose the opening of the Zangezur corridor.

Tehran has repeatedly stated that the creation of the Zangezur corridor is inadmissible if it leads to the closure of the Iranian-Armenian border. Moreover, Iranian authorities periodically conduct military exercises on the border with Azerbaijan during military-political aggravation in the South Caucasus. On September 22, President Raisi at a military parade in Tehran in memory of the Iran-Iraq War of 1980–1988. stated that the Iranian military could prevent “any change in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus.” In addition, he called on the Azerbaijani authorities to protect the rights of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.

From the point of view of the Iranian authorities, the most suitable transport project would be a highway that would pass through the territory of Iran, Iranian expert Nikita Smagin believes. Then Tehran could control this project and would have an additional opportunity to influence regional processes, the expert continues: “However, I am not sure that Turkey and Azerbaijan would be satisfied with this option, allowing the Iranians, if necessary, to block the route or threaten to block it.”

At the same time, Smagin continues, Iran is not ready to oppose the work of the Zangezur corridor if it is launched: “We see that the Iranian authorities do not want to defend Armenia, although they are interested in developing relations with it – not to the detriment of ties with Azerbaijan. This proves that the Ankara-Baku tandem managed to impose its position on Tehran.” According to the expert, although the Iranian authorities are concerned about the new change in the status quo in the region, on the other hand, they are ready to come to terms with these changes. “This is also noticeable in the rhetoric of the Iranian authorities: if previously they allowed themselves harsh statements against Baku and Ankara, today they are more restrained. They realized that it is better not to quarrel with the strengthened parties, and are ready to sacrifice their principles and approaches,” the expert noted.

In the current realities, Smagin continues, Iran could theoretically act as a mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue, but after Baku’s recent military operation in Karabakh, the need for the Iranians in this process has disappeared. “I believe that political stabilization in the region will occur without the active involvement of Tehran as a mediator. The states of the region do not really need it,” the expert concluded.