Producers predicted an increase in selling prices for bread

Producers can raise selling prices for bread by 7-10% until the end of 2023. The reason for the rise in price is the increase in the cost of raw materials, logistics and wages of workers. About it informed RBC with reference to the executive director of the National Baking Union (which unites the Kolomensky Bakery and Confectionery Plant, the SMAK Bakery and Pasta Plant, the Karavai Bakery and other large manufacturers) Rustam Aidiev.

Selling prices for bread last increased in the spring of 2022. At the end of the summer of the same year, many producers partially reduced prices, but the economics of production did not allow them to return to the previous level.

Aidiev notes that at the moment, an increase in selling prices provokes a significant increase in production costs, so it will not work to keep prices down and maintain a balance, as in 2022.

From June 2022 to July 2023, the price of flour gradually decreased, but now the price of premium wheat flour exceeds the level of last year by 15-18%. Such growth rates have not been observed over the past 15 years. In addition, according to Aidiev, farmers began to hold back sales against the backdrop of rising grain prices. Raw materials entering the market, including those from a new harvest, do not meet the requirements for GOST baking flour in terms of class and quality. In a negative scenario, bakers may consider switching to all-purpose flour.

In addition, the costs of services and tariffs of transport companies increased by almost 30%, and the share of logistics in the cost of bread exceeded the share of the main raw material – flour. Bakers also complain about the outflow of staff and the forced increase in wages for workers. In 2023, salaries were raised twice: by 10-15% in February and by 10-15% in July-August. This stopped the outflow, but did not compensate for the shortfall. Currently, production lacks about 15% of the staff, and this figure continues to grow. Aidiev explains that the production of inexpensive mass varieties of bread remains unprofitable, so enterprises cannot provide the required level of wages.

Aidiev believes that the first increase in selling prices for bakery products by 7-10% should be expected at the end of August. And we are talking about the selling price, and not about the prices in stores.

The Ministry of Agriculture does not expect a noticeable increase in retail prices for bread: the price dynamics will not exceed the level of general inflation. At the same time, the quality of grain in 2023 is at a high level, and the cost of wheat flour from producers is 13.2% lower than a year earlier. At the same time, the ministry admits that the costs of wages, electricity and logistics have increased in production.