Probability of Iranian nuclear strike on Pakistan assessed
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Yuri Lyamin said whether the parties need to escalate the conflict
Pakistan’s armed forces carried out strikes on the territory of neighboring Iran as part of a counter-terrorism operation. However, according to Yuri Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), Islamabad is unlikely to use nuclear weapons – further escalation of the conflict is not beneficial for a nuclear power.
Let us recall that attacks from Pakistan were carried out on the bases of rebel groups in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan. Previously, Iran launched strikes on Pakistani territory, explaining this by the need to destroy separatists living near the Iran-Pakistan border.
According to Yuri Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), there will most likely not be an escalation of the conflict:
“Judging by the retaliatory strike that Pakistan launched this morning against the Baloch border villages, it doesn’t really want to escalate. That is why he chose a response with minimal damage – so as not to lose face, on the one hand, and on the other, so as not to affect the Iranian military and government structures.
The expert recalled that the border areas of Iran and Pakistan, which are inhabited by the Baluchis, are very difficult for both states. They are closely connected with international terrorist structures, so the armies of Iran and Pakistan periodically conduct military operations against them.
“Local groups that operate on both sides of the border carry out attacks and are a really serious problem. I think that most likely both sides will try in the near future to simply “hush up” all the events, since no one is interested in further escalation.
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