Poland threatens not to conclude new arms contracts with Ukraine

Poland will carry out “only previously agreed supplies of ammunition and weapons, including those arising from contracts concluded with Ukraine,” Polish government spokesman Piotr Müller said on September 21 (quoted by the PAR agency). The day before, on September 20, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Polsat that Warsaw had stopped supplying weapons to Kyiv, as it was actively arming itself. “Even if you don’t want to defend yourself, you should have something to defend yourself with – we adhere to this principle, which is why we have increased the number of orders,” Morawiecki explained.

“We cannot transfer to Ukraine our new weapons, which we buy to strengthen the security of Poland or modernize the Polish army,” Duda said in an interview with TVN on September 21. “We have signed agreements with Ukraine concerning, in particular, ammunition and special equipment, and we are implementing them.”

These statements coincided with the escalating conflict between Warsaw and Kyiv over the Polish embargo on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to the Polish market. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York, accused Warsaw of helping Russia with the ban. “It may seem that they have [Польши] have their own role, but instead they help prepare the ground for the Moscow actor,” Zelensky said.

In response, on September 20, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland Vasily Zvarych was summoned to the Foreign Ministry. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland Pawel Jablonski conveyed to Zvarych “a decisive protest from the Polish side.” “Pressuring Poland in multilateral forums or sending complaints to international tribunals are not appropriate methods for resolving disputes between two countries,” Jablonski said.

Poland, Hungary and Slovakia renewed the embargo on Ukrainian agricultural products on their markets after on September 15 the European Commission (EC) did not extend the pan-European restrictions on Ukrainian grains that had been in force since May. These countries justify their decision by protecting farmers. On September 18, Ukraine filed claims with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. This is what Jablonski meant when he spoke of “complaints to international tribunals.”

At the same time, the peak of Polish arms supplies to Ukraine is probably behind us. By February 2023, according to Morawiecki, Warsaw transferred to Ukraine 310 Soviet-designed T-72 tanks of various modifications, of which 250 were old models, and 14 German Leopard 2s. In April, Zelenskiy announced a contract for 200 Polish Rosomak armored personnel carriers, in May, Polish Defense Minister Wojciech Skurkiewicz announced an additional contract for 18 Krab self-propelled howitzers (self-propelled howitzers). Later, comparable contracts and deliveries of armored vehicles from Poland were not reported. In April, the Polish president spoke about plans to supply Ukraine with 14 MiG-29 fighters, leaving the country with aircraft upgraded to NATO standards.

Poland has probably already handed over what it didn’t mind giving away, but it doesn’t want to give away more modern weapons, says Alexander Ermakov, a researcher at IMEMO RAS. This approach is shared by other European donors to Ukraine. “But this objective fact has also become part of the general deterioration of Polish-Ukrainian relations,” adds Ermakov.

Warsaw, with its statements about the termination of arms contracting for Kyiv, marked a new stage in the policy of military support for Ukraine, says Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the MGIMO IMI. The outdated Soviet and post-Soviet weapons that were in warehouses are running out and there is a need to send more modern and expensive weapons, which is a pity, the expert agrees. “Poland is clearly setting the tone for this new stage. The key requirement, obviously, will be the demand for guarantees from Ukraine for a more rational and careful, but at the same time effective use of technology,” the expert believes. With its line regarding grain and weapons, Poland seeks to show Brussels, Kyiv, and Berlin how the policy of its interests works, says Sokolov. The EU leadership does not actively disapprove of Poland’s actions. Obviously, the EU believes that Warsaw has the right to demonstrate its interests. “The way Polish politicians boldly make statements that run counter to the general line of EU support for Ukraine suggests that Warsaw is confident in its own abilities,” concludes Sokolov.