Poland finds it difficult to pay for large-scale rearmament

Poland, which has planned to spend a record 4% of GDP on military spending in 2023 for NATO countries, may find it difficult to fulfill these ambitious plans. On April 23, the Financial Times (FT) writes about this, citing interviewed experts, including former high-ranking officials of this country.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki confirmed on January 30 that the defense budget, including for the rearmament of the army, will reach 4% of GDP in 2023 (in 2022, its share was 2.42% of GDP). He cited the conflict in Ukraine as a motivating motive. “This will probably be the largest percentage earmarked for the army among all NATO countries,” he said at the time. As TASS reported, the Polish government allocated about 98 billion zlotys ($20.8 billion) for defense in 2023, another 30 billion to 40 billion zlotys ($6.3-8.5 billion) is planned to be accumulated using borrowings from the off-budget Fund support of the armed forces, from which the purchase of new weapons is financed.

In 2022, Poland ranked 3rd in the ranking of military spending as a share of GDP in NATO after Greece and the United States. But Germany and France are still unable to fulfill their obligations to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP. At the same time, in absolute terms, Polish spending cannot be compared with American or British ones.

It is noted that the right-wing forces in power explain to the population of the country that only large military purchases can ensure the security of the country, referring to the actions of Russia. Opposition representatives, despite parliamentary elections approaching in the autumn, do not criticize this argument, but draw attention to the huge cost of rearmament.

The question remains as to which areas of Poland’s public spending could be cut for the sake of the army. The FT emphasizes that the further fate of the announced plans will largely depend on the results of the autumn parliamentary elections.

At the same time, the details of many defense contracts that the Polish government concludes are not disclosed. Among Warsaw’s latest agreements is a $10 billion deal approved by the US State Department for the sale of 500 HIMARS Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) charging modules and related equipment. The US and Poland also agreed to sell F-35 fighters, Apache helicopters, Abrams tanks and Patriot air defense systems. In addition, in 2022, Warsaw became one of South Korea’s largest military customers, signing a $5.8 billion contract for the supply of tanks and howitzers. Poland also wants to host a European service center for American Abrams tanks: similar enterprises, according to the authorities may spur economic stimulus.

Warsaw will have no difficulty in achieving Poland’s goal of bringing its military spending to 4% of GDP, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, believes. At the moment, Poland is positioning itself as a strong European military and economic power.

Moreover, the economy (the budget of the republic for 2023 was adopted with a forecast of GDP growth at the level of 1.7%, and in 2022 it grew by 4.9%. – Vedomosti) and the country’s defense capabilities are developing at a high pace. Poland has the task of becoming a European power of the first rank, so we can assume that the decision to rearm the army is in fact not connected either with Russia or with domestic politics, the analyst says. In his opinion, Poland has the potential for this and should not be perceived as a “small Eastern European country”. Although Poland is the largest recipient of European Union (EU) financial assistance, the Polish government can achieve its defense goals without additional external assistance, Ofitserov-Belsky believes.

Poland is unlikely to be able to fulfill ambitious rearmament plans on its own, objected Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Faculty of International Relations and Foreign Regional Studies of the RSUH. This country receives the most from EU funds in absolute terms, so the Polish calculation is to become the main defense force in Europe in fact due to this. But, according to the political scientist, NATO and EU allies will be ready to cover Polish arms bills only to the extent they deem necessary. At the same time, the Polish government’s relations with Germany and France are rather tense at the moment. The expert agrees that a lot will depend on the results of the elections in Poland in six months. The ruling “Law and Justice” pays a lot of attention to the revival of Poland as a great power, and in many respects the decision on the massive rearmament of the army is connected with countering the “Russian threat” in the role of a “European fortress,” Trukhachev believes. On the other hand, the actions of the government are dictated by an attempt to restore the role of Poland in the EU and there are no other opportunities here, except for becoming a significant military force, Trukhachev sums up.